2022 Belmont Stakes Results
Congrats to Mo Donegal in Winning the Belmont S.
Nest had a bad start as she stumbled out of the gate and then was bumped into by the Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike who broke in inwards. As a result she spotted the leaders 3 lengths which at the end may have cost her the win! She was attempting to become just the 4th Filly to win the Belmont Stakes in 154 years. After the bad start she was able to move up along the rail, saving ground to gain position racing in third and staying in contention with the field as she passed the winner with a half mile to go! With 3 furlongs to go, she had to move out four wide to get around the front runners as Mo Donegal had just moved up to pass her. She ran well to get 2nd 3 1/4 lengths in front of Skippylongstocking (11-1).
Skippylongstocking did all the dirty work of putting pressure on the pace setter We the People (4-1) who looked to be the Lone Early Speed in the race and a threat to wire the field if no one pressured him. "Skippy" made sure that would not happen which gave Mo Donegal the opportunity to use his late closing style of running to win the race.
The Belmont Stakes Exacta was taken down by trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole giving the owner his first Belmont Stakes winner and Pletcher his 4th win and his 7th runner up!
The upset Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike (4-1) could do no better than finish 6th in an 8 horse field in the Belmont Stakes as he was in last for the first Mile of the race which gave him no chance of being in contention.
This will be the 4th consecutive year and 6th in last 7 years that the Triple Crown races were won by three different horses.
Before a crowd of 46,301, total Belmont Stakes handle was $50.94 Million, down 16.5% over 2021. A total of $98.77 Million wagered on the 13 race card which was down 11.7 percent.
Plans for Mo Donegal looks to be the Travers Stakes at Saratoga in August.
However, we had some concerns with him lasting the final 1/4 Mile in the Belmont Stakes because we felt that another runner would contest him on the front end and put more pressure on him early than what he was accustomed to. That is exactly what Skippylongstocking did for the first 1 1/4 Miles! As a result We the People faded in that final 1/4 Mile to finish 4th.
The preferred running style to win the Belmont Stakes is a horse that can be within 4 1/2 lengths of the leader after the opening 1/2 Mile as you do not want to too far behind.
As a result we felt that the Filly Nest (5-1) had an excellent shot at winning the race over the Kentucky Derby runners and become just the 4th Filly to win in 154 years and the second Filly to win trained by Todd Pletcher and give him his 4th win in the Belmont Stakes.
We liked the pedigree of Nest as she had the powerful Raise A Native sire side pedigree line along withe "X-Chromosome" of War Admiral or Mahmoud and a DI of 3.00 in edition to coming off a runner-up finish in the KY Oaks where she had some trouble that prevented her from winning the race as the favorite.
As it turned out, Pletcher got his 4th Belmont Stakes win, just not with Nest but with the 5th place KY Derby runner Mo Donegal the (5/2) post time favorite while Nest finished 2nd!
As we expected, We the People did get early pressure from Skippylongstocking with Nest not far behind them in 3rd within 3 lengths of the leader for most of the race. She got caught stuck behind them in mid-stretch and had to swing out around them as Mo Donegal mad his move ahead of her and got the the wire first.
Nest ran a very good race to finish 2nd as she stumbled out of the gate as jockey Jose Ortiz regained control of her and quickly moved up the rail to gain position. Did the stumble cost her the race? I am not sure but it would have been closer than 3 lengths at the end!
It was a great 1-2 finish for trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole as well as the Ortiz brothers.
The Belmont Stakes does not set up well for deep closers and thus the Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike had no chance at winning the race as he finished 6th beaten 13 1/2 lengths.
Our wagering strategy requires us to use 1-A, 2-B and 3-C runners with the A being most likely the winner with the Bs best for the bottom of the Exacta and in the Trifecta with the Cs to make up the bottom of the Trifecta and Superfecta.
Our A runner was Nest (A1 8-1).
The B horses were Golden Glider (B1 20-1) and Mo Donegal (B2 - 5/2) - our top contenders for being in-the-money behind our (A) selection!
Our C horses (those that should make it into the the Trifecta & Superfecta) were We the People (C1 - 2-1), Rich Strike (C2 - 7/2) and Barber Road (C3 - 10-1).
Our wagering strategy allowed us to cash in on the Exacta for $27.60 & the Trifecta for $187.50 - 3 of the Top 4 Favorites were in the Superfecta!
Skippylongstocking was our first pick to include if there were any scratches at post time.
The payouts were very Low because of 3 of the 4 top favorites hit the Superfecta and it was a small field of just 8 runners.Exacta paid $27.60, $1 Trifecta paid $187.50 with the $1 Superfecta giving back just $692.00.
There were only (3) runners that had the Powerful Raise A Native sire side pedigree line and (2) of them were in the Trifecta! Nest and Skippylongstocking.
Our Top selection won in (4) races and in our Top 4 selections in (7) other races.
We Hit (8) Exacta winners. Race 3 ($8.70), R4 ($61.50), R5 ($30.20), R7 ($31.80), R8 ($38.20), R9 ($16.80), R10 ($189.50) and R11 ($27.60).
Total - $404.30 for $2 wagers.
Cashed in on (5) Trifectas - Race 4 ($79.00), Race 5 ($46.00), R8 ($197.50), R9 ($8.60) and Race 11 ($187.50).
Total - $518.60 in $1 wagers.
Also had (7) Superfectas in R1 ($571.50), R4 ($99.70), R5 ($241.70), R6 ($59.50), R7 ($93.20), R8 ($1,525.00) and R9 ($10.90).
Total - $2,601.50 in $1 wagers.
Hit (10) Daily Doubles - Race 3 ($12.00), Race 4 ($3.00), Race 5 ($9.30), R6 ($6.40), R7 ($9.30), R8 ($36.25), R9 ($9.80), R12 ($8.70), R13 ($6.20) and the Metropolitan / Belmont Stakes 2-day Double ($4.65).
Total - $105.60 in $1 wagers.
Also had (7) Pick 3s in R4 ($24.80), R5 ($11.40), R6 ($13.20), R7 ($33.00), R8 ($43.75), R9 ($54.25) and R13 ($23.10).
Total - $203.50 in $1 Wagers.
Hit (2) Pick 4s - Race 5 ($56.87) and Race 13 ($175.00).
Total - $231.87 in 50 CENT wagers.
Grand Total Won - $4,065.37
The track was rated FAST throughout the Day and the Turf rated Firm for the day. There was (6) winning Favorites and (3) 2nd Favorites Winning on the 13 race card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was a decent $11.90 ....
It was a crazy Triple Crown Series this year starting with an (80-1) Upset winner in the KY Derby who decided to skip the Preakness Stakes and Chad Brown winning another Preakness Stakes with a runner that choose not to run in the KY Derby and then Todd Pletcher taking down the Exacta in the Belmont Stakes!
As a result, there is no 3-year old horse that is a standout to win year end awards so the Mid-Summer Derby at Saratoga will be key in who wins those awards at the end of the year. Stay tuned!