But not that much of a jump up!

This was also a rare Derby race where the leaders backed up so quickly in the stretch. Just as Pioneerof the Nile took the lead it looked like he began to backup. I think this had a lot to do with the track condition at the end of the day. Early on in the day, Early speed was holding and with no sunshine or wind, the track was remaining Sloppy/Fast but by the end of the day reports were coming in saying that surface was getting Heavy and not really Sloppy/Fast.

Also all day long in the winning jockey's post race interviews, they all were saying that the rail seamed to be the place to be in the stretch run. So why did Gomez, Coa and Bejarano stay away from it???

Don't get me wrong, I give Mine That Bird all the credit for winning, but I do think that the race was compromised by the track conditions as well as by the defections of horses do to injuries. Those that dropped out were I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Old Fashioned, Square Eddie, Win Willy, The Pamplemousse, Beethoven and Midshipman.

  Our Derby Picks

We came within a Nose of hitting a Super Big Exacta with our ALL with Papa Clem and Musket Man.

Our Full Card selections performed well as we had 7 Exacta winners in our Top 4 horses, our Top Longshot in race 5 won and paid $35.20, we had 5 Trifecta winners in our top 4 selections, one Daily Double for $258 and in Race 12 we had the Exacta ($19), Trifecta ($281) and the Superfecta ($1,450) straight.

  Mine That Bird will be running in the Preakness and it looks like  Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man and Papa Clem will be joing him along with Flying Private and General Quarters.

New shooters possible are Big Drama, Conservative, Hull, Sky Gate, Take the Points, Terrain, and Tone It Down.

Will we finally have a Triple Crown Winner?

An over achieving, under rated horse just might be what will finally give us one!  

Big Brown became the first Kentucky Derby winner in 93 years to have won with ONLY 3 career races and the 1st to win from post 20 since Clyde Van Dusen in 1921!

  He got a perfect trip from the outside racing in 6th just a couple of lengths behind the pace setters and then moved past them all in the final turn and pulling off to win by an easy 4 3/4 lengths.

Jockey Kent Desormeaux gave Big Brown a perfect ride ... or was it the other way around! It was Desormeaux's 3rd Derby winner. His others were Real Quiet (1998) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000).

Finishing behind Big Brown was the Filly Eight Belles, Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati.

Big Brown showed that he was far a better horse than the rest of the Derby contenders. This year's 3-year old horses are a notch below the typical 3-year olds at this time of the year!

Based on speed numbers there were NO Derby runners that came close to Big Brown's. Because no one was close to his numbers he was able to win the 134th Kentucky Derby easily with having ONLY 3 career races coming into the Derby!

That should never happen because of the racing conditioning needed to win a 1 1/4 Mile race early in your 3-year old career!

I do believe the main reason why the other 3-year olds are not getting to the necassary speed ratings is because trainers today are NOT racing their horses often enough so they are ready to peak when the Derby comes around on the 1st Saturday in May!

 Maybe that will change next year after seeing their horses not being competitive at the highest levels. But then again, trainers are slow learners!!

Keep an eye open as these Derby also rans continue their racing campaigns this year as they should improve each time out.

What can you say about Eight Belles? The effort she put in was absolutley magnificent! She ran a great race running within a few lengths of the leaders and was still there at the top of the stretch trying to make up ground on Big Brown.

Unfortunately, her breakdown after the race was over was heart breaking and disappointing as she ran the race of her life!

I do believe part of the reason for the breakdown of Eight Belles, Barbaro and Charismatic is the FACT that breeders today are breeding  more for speed than stamina.

The reason being they want to win big races early in the horses career so they can be retired and sent to the breeding barn for maximizing their earnings in their new career.

When was the last time we saw Triple Crown race winners or even top 3 finishers racing as a 4 and 5 year old?

The answer is Funny Cide who was gelded and had NO earning potential in the breeding barn!

Where are Smarty Jones, Lion Heart, Giacomo, War Emblem, Hard Spun, Afleet Alex, Empire Maker, Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos? 

Horses that are bred for speed have softer bones than those that are bred for stamina.

Well, it is on to the Preakness Stakes and Big Brown's quest to become the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years.

Can he do it?    Sure he can .....

But it will not be easy as we have had 6 unsuccessful attempts in the last 11 years!

Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003),  War Emblem (2002), Charismatic (1999), Real Quiet (1998) and Silver Charm (1997).

If Big Brown is to win the Triple Crown this year he will become ONLY the 2nd  UNDEFEATED Triple Crown winner! Seattle Slew  currently is the ONLY  horse to have accomplished this feat.

• That 16 of the past 25 Kentucky Derby winners traced their broodmare sire bloodlines back to Princequillo, Nassrullah, Northern Dancer or Turn-To?

Yes, Street Sense had this pedigree trait. So did Curlin!

• That 26 of the last 40 1st and 2nd place finishers in the Kentucky Derby had the passing of the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmound in the correct position of their bloodline for inheritance?  ...  this is known as the Large-Heart trait which Triple Crown winner Secretariat had and was credited to his 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes ...

Again, Street Sense also had the X-Chromosome and so did Imawildandcrazyguy.

• that 68% of the past 20 Derby's have been won by a "back-of-the-pack" horse.

Street Sense certainly was that.

• 75% of the past 20 Derby's have been won by a horse that ran 3-7 races as a 2 year old
  
  

Street Sense had 5 races in his 2-year old campaign.

only 1 horse has won in the past 21 years that did not run a race within 28 days unless it was in the Florida Derby.

Street Sense was the ONLY horse in the Top 3 finishers that ran within 28 days. If Hard Spun had NOT skipped the Bluegrass Stakes he might just have had enough stamina to hold off Street Sense!

all but one winner in the past 16 years had a BRIS speed rating
of over 100 as a 3 year old (all but two of those had at least a 105).

Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin ALL broke the 100 rating and BOTH Street Sense and Hard Spun were 2 of ONLY 4 horses that reached the 105 level!

24 of the past 34 Derby winners raced in one of the Big-6 Prep-Races and ran the final quarter-mile in 25.2 seconds or less.

Both Street Sense and Curlin accomplihed this .. Hard Spun also got his 1/4 mile in less than 25.2 but it was not in one of the Big-6 prep-races!

As you can see, even though many of the trainers this year were trying to go against the PROVEN winning Derby profiles, most of them were again proven this year!

•  

Street Sense became the FIRST BC Juvenile winner to win the Kentucky Derby!

In my selections I described how he certainly was the horse to beat but that because he would be the favorite, I would try to beat him with some value. I NEVER (almost) make the Derby Favorite my TOP selection as the favorite wins at a very low percentage.

However, when there is such a closely matched field as this one was, it is COMMON for the favorites to win and make up the Trifecta!

Hard Spun led the race from the gate just as I thought he would. I predicited that at the top of the stretch he would begin to fade and I felt he would finish out of the money based on that super fast workout he had just days before the race.

Well, I was partly correct but he did not fade as much as I thought!

I have always liked Hard Spun thoughout the year up until his trainer skipped the Bluegrass and then followed that up with the workout that was almost 2 seconds faster than anyone else that day!

Hard Spun will run in the Preakness Stakes and he probably will be the favorite! Speed horses do well at Pimlico but will he be able to hold off Street Sense or did his Derby race take too much out of him?

---

                                             

Congratulations to Barbaro the

2006 Kentucky Derby Winner!

 

Awesome race as Barbaro won by a demolishing 6 1/2 lengths. The largest margin of victory in the Kentucky Derby since 1946 when Triple Crown winner Assault won by 8 lengths.

Could that mean a Triple Crown for Barbaro?

Barbaro remains undefeated and is the 6th horse to come out of the Derby undefeated in the 132-year history of the race. Smarty Jones did it in 2004.

18 times a horse has been undefeated coming into the Kentucky Derby and Barbaro has become ONLY the 6th to leave unbeaten! He is now on the Triple Crown chase with the Preakness Stakes up next in 2 weeks.

The 2nd largest crowd, 157,536, in Derby history saw  Barbaro easily defeat one of the  toughest fields in many years.  Congratulate trainer Michael Matz for conditioning Barbaro to put forth his BEST effort on Derby day.

Matz did a wonderful job getting this horse ready with only 2 races  in  a 13-week period. That is unheard of in the Triple Crown series.

The past 2 Derbys have shown the racing world that an equestrian trainer knows best how to condition a horse for the big time races without having to race them into shape.

Last year trainer Tim Ritchey used unconventional 2 a day 1 1/2 - 2 mile  gallops to get Afleet Alex into shape and this year Matz. Equestrian trainers should now be in demand by owners with Triple Crown aspirations ....

Barbaro went off as the 2nd favorite just slightly behind the "wise-guy" horse Sweetnorthernsaint.

Barbaro paid a decent $14.20, $8 and $6 for Win, Place and Show.

2nd place horse Bluegrass Cat paid $28.40 and $15.40 for Place and Show and 3rd place finisher Stennenwolfer paid $7.80 to Show.

The Exacta paid $587, the trifecta $11,418.40 and there was 2 superfectas with a dead heat for 4th with Jazil and Brother Derek. The superfectas paid $84,860.40 and $59,839 .....

It should be noted that Brother Derek was reported to have lost a shoe in the post parade. That made it very difficult for him to win the race and did very well dead heating for 4th!

Can you believe that the Philly area is now the epicenter for Triple Crown horses??

That's right, the home of the Cheesesteak is  the center of  Triple Crown  horse racing. The home of Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and now Barbaro.

They have combined for winning 5 of the last 7 Triple Crown races .......

Let's look at some of the Derby pedigree stats that my system uses that again came true!!

• That 13 of the past 19 Derby(s) a horse with Buckpasser in their bloodline Won or came in 2nd? (10 of those Won)

Now it is 14 of 20 as  2nd Place finisher Bluegrass Cat had this pedigree and so did 3rd place finisher Steppenwolfer!

• That 24 of the last 38 1st and 2nd place finishers had the passing of the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmound in the correct position of their bloodline for inheritance?? This is known as the "large-heart" trait which Secretariat had and was credited to his 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes!

Yes, it is now 26 of the last 40 as both Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat had this pedigree trait!

As you can see it is important to have the CORRECT pedigree for winning the Kentucky Derby??

Here are some of the Derby stats that my system uses that again came true!!

• That ONLY 2 race time favorites have won the Kentucky Derby in the past 26 years?

Again the Derby favorite (Sweetnorthernsaint) did not win or come in-the-money.

• That the Top 3 favorites ONLY hit the board ONCE the last 30 years?

It is now 31 and counting ....

• That the Top 2 Favorites have ONLY hit the board 6 times in the last 20 years?

Again, it is now 6 of last 21 years!

• All but one winner in the past 15 years had a Beyer or BRIS speed rating of over 100 as a 3-year old?

The streak continues at 1 of last 16 winners.

The next challenge for Barbaro is can he win a race coming back in just 2 weeks??

He has NOT been trained to come back that soon!  Stayed tuned ......

Congratulations to Giacome
The 50-1 Derby Winner

The 2nd largest upset in Kentucky Derby history!

Can you believe it?  50-1,  71-1  and 29-1 ....

The 131st Kentucky Derby set all-time records for dollars being wagered, $100 Million+, and for pay offs!

$864,253.50  for a $1 Superfecta! Unbelievable ...

If you purchased my Derby Picks, you knew that I had 3 of the 4 horses. We did not have Closing Argument and we lost the Exacta by  a very close 1/2 length.

Afleet Alex was our A1 selection to win the race but long shot Giacomo was our B1 contender most likely to be in-the-money and Don't Get Mad was one of my C horses for filling out the Trifecta and Superfecta wagers.

If you had purchased my picks this is what I had to say about them;

Giacomo - "is on the improve as he earned his 1st triple digit BRIS speed rating last out in the Santa Anita Derby finishing 4th (I love horses who ran 4th last time out) - his final 1/4 mile run in 25.1 which we like a lot - his trainer excels in 4th race after a layoff - his breeding is excellent for the Derby - has Buckpasser within 1st 5 generations and broodmare sire of Nassrullah, Northern Dancer, Princequillo or Turn-To - his down side is that he has not yet won a Graded race and this is a tuff spot to get your first"

I hope you had something on Giacomo to Place and Show or Across-the-Board!

Don't Get Mad - "just won the Derby Trial 7 days ago - will be difficult to win this race - he can come on for a piece of the super or tri - has the correct runjing style for being there when the speed falls apart - earned his best ever BRIS speed rating last out along with a triple digit "Late-pace" speed of 107 - had 2 wins over the Churchill track last year - has Buckpasser within his first 5 generations and the Nassrullah, Northern Dancer, Princequillo or Turn-To broodmare line"

So, you can see we were right there to cash some nice tickets, Afleet Alex just could not hang on for the Win or Place position.

Let's review our Winning Derby Profile that was proven again this year;

Another favorite goes down - only 2 race time favorites have won in the past 25 years.

The Top 3 favorites have only hit the board once in the past 29 years.

The last 20 winners have all run a sharp last race (ITM or within 4 lengths of the winner) Giacomo was 4th only 2 lengths behind.

All but 1 winner in the past 14 years had a BRIS speed rating of at least 100 as a 3-year old. Giacomo had a 100.

14 of the past 19 Derbys a horse with Buckpasser within their 1st 5 generations won or came in 2nd. Closing Argument had it.

23 of 35 1st or 2nd place finishers had the "Large-heart" or X-chromosome trait - 3 of the 1st 4 finishers had it.

NO Breeders Cup Juvenile winner has ever won the Derby and again this year Wilko had no chance.

My proven system for handicapping the Kentucky Derby proves itself year-in and year-out. It consits of 21 categories that include pedigree and racing campaign as a 2 and 3-year old.

You can still purchase and download our Proven Derby Handicapping system now. Just click on a button below so you will have it for next year!!

2004 Derby Winner Smarty Jones

What a 2 horse race the Kentucky Derby was!

The sloppy track certainly gave the speed horses the advantage and the fact that the grounds crew sealed the surface, only added to their advantage.

If you purchased my system How To Pick The Derby Winner, you would have been aware that a sloppy track most affects the speed horses in a positive way.
Our Top Pick The Cliff's Edge lost BOTH of his front shoes during the race. That makes it very difficult to run well in the Biggest race of the year .... on an off-track!!

Because we are looking for value in the Kentucky Derby, we do NOT bet the post time favorite to win, thus we did not have Smarty Jones on top of our tickets. But our wagering strategy allowed us to hit the Exacta.

Oh, well that is horse racing.

Make no doubt about it, Smarty Jones is a very good horse, he has always shown a lot of heart when being challenged and he can continue to get better.

With the $5 Million bonus that he won along with the Derby purse, Smarty Jones is now No. 6 on the All-Time earnings list with $6,733,155.
 
It was a great weekend in Philly, our sports teams can't win a Championship, but we have the Kentucky Derby Winner!!!

Even though Smarty Jones and Lion Heart had the race to themselves .... it was one of the slowest Kentucky Derbys in many years having been run in 2:04 flat.....
The last time it was run that slow was 15 years ago in 1989 when Sunday Silence won in 2:05 flat on a muddy track!! (muddy tracks are slower than sloppy tracks).
 
What does the slow Derby time of 2:04 tell us?

What will the effect be on the Preakness?

In a recap of our Derby profile let's review;

Only 1 horse has won in the past 18 years that did not run between 3-5 races as a 3 year old ... thus Friends Lake, Birdstone, Read The Footnotes, Castledale and Tapit did NOT have a chance to win....
 
NO horse has won the Derby that did not have a race within the past 28 days... thus Friends Lake, Read The Footnotes and Birdstone had NO chance of winning....
Only 1 Derby winner had a BRIS Speed rating of less than 100 in their last race.... thus Birdstone, Friends Lake, Read the Footnotes, St. Averil, Tapit and Wimbledon had NO chance of winning the race....

15 of the last 22 Derby winners had a 1st or 2nd in one of the Derby Big 6 Prep-races... now it is 16 of 23...

22 of the last 38 Winners had the Phalaris sire / Non-Phalaris broodmare" bloodline..... it is Now 23 of the past 39 winners....

The "X-Chromosome" Large-Heart trait in the pedigree comes in 1st and/or 2nd..... well again another Winner had this Pedigree trait.... It is CRITICAL that you know which horses have the "Large-Heart" bloodlines if you want to pick the WINNER!!
 
If you do not know who has the X-Chromosome in the correct position for inheritance of the Larg-Heart trait ..... you will not have the Derby Winner.

2003 Derby Winner Funny Cide

Another Kentucky Derby in the books and ANOTHER favorite goes down!

For those of you that bought my Derby Pedigree handicapping system, you know the importance of having the "Large-heart" trait, the Buckpasser bloodline within their 1st five generations, the Raise A Native in their sire line, and the "Nasrullah, Northern Dancer, Princequillo or Turn-To" broodmare bloodlines!!


Here are some of the continuing statistics that were detailed in my handicapping system;

13 of the past 19 Derbys, a horse with Buckpasser in their bloodlines won or came in second (9 of those won).... that's right, Funny Cide and Empire Maker had this bloodline,

22 of the past 34 1st and 2nd place finishers had the "Large-heart" trait on the dam side... that's right, Funny Cide and Empire Maker had this bloodline...

15 of the past 23 winners trace their Broodmare sire line back to "Princequillo, Nassrullah, Northern dancer or Turn-To"..... that's right, Funny Cide had this trait as well as Empire Maker, Peace Rules and Atswhatimtalknbout... nice Superfecta not to mention the Trifecta and Exacta!!

From my 20 plus years of handicapping the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown series, I have developed a system, which identifies the horses that have the correct pedigree for winning the Derby. My system has picked the Derby winner in 3 out of the last 5 years!!

That includes not only the winner but the Exacta in 4 out of the past 5 years and the Trifecta in 3 of the past 5 years!

I have developed 20 statistics that are indisputable and MUST be used to handicap the Derby.... if you want to win!

After you have my system all you need is the Racing Form or Past Performance from any other source to come up with the Key horses to win and the contenders for the Exoctics. It is very easy to understand and is not time consuming.

For the stats that require you to know the bloodlines, I provide you with the list of horses that have those bloodlines, etc.

Last year the system had all of the first 4 finishers, but not in the correct order. I did not have War Emblem on top of my list of contenders because of his front running, wire-to-wire style. Only 2 horses in the previous 13 years won the Kentucky Derby wire-to-wire....... however there was a indicator that would have moved him to our Top Level contenders that was not a part of my system. I have incorporated that factor into my system this year. It is a factor that has proven itself over the past 5 years!!

Do you remember the winning prices for the 2001 Derby?

They were -

Monarchos paid $23.00 - $11.80 - $8.80 for win-place-show bets. The Exacta paid $1,229.00, the Trifecta paid $12,238.40 and the Superfecta paid $62,986.90........

My system had them all

Did You?

If not, you need my "Winning the Kentucky Derby" system!

I also include with my system a very powerful wagering strategy that maximize your coverage of a large 17 horse betting field without requiring you to invest a fortune!

This powerful stragety includes Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta tickets.

Here is a winning Superfecta ticket from a happy customer that purchased my Derby System & Wagering Strategy

This ticket paid $2,795.80 ....

You can still purchase and download our system for picking the Kentucky Derby Winner so you are ready for next year and can see how it identified ALL of the Top 4 finishers!!

Just click on a button below to download it NOW ....