2017 Kentucky Derby Logo

2017 Kentucky Derby Winners & Results of Picks

Always Dreaming Wins for Pletcher on Muddy Track!


Kentucky Derby winner Winner

Congratulations to Team Pletcher - Dreams Do Come True!

Always Dreaming wins the 143rd Kentucky Derby for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez on a muddy track as the post time favorite and becoming the 5th consecutive favorite to win the Kentucky Derby!

In what everyone thought was a wide-open field this year, the result was another favorite winning. At least is was not as chalky as last year when the top 4 favorites ran 1-2-3-4, longshots did show up in 2nd and 3rd with the third favorite, Classic Empire (7-1) getting up for 4th.

Always Dreaming broke well and raced in 2nd behind State of Honor (54-1), staying clear from the muddy kick-back, until the 3/4 pole where he took the lead and easily won by 2 3/4 lengths ahead of the fast closing Lookin At Lee (33-1) who was in 16th place at 3/4 pole.

Battle of Midway (40-1), racing 1/2 length behind Always Dreaming, ran a solid pressing race to the mile pole where the 1 1/4 mile distance of the race began to impact him was able to hold on for 3rd one length ahead of the ground gaining Classic Empire.

This was trainer Todd Pletcher's second Kentucky Derby  win with both of them over a sloppy track. Super Saver in 2010 was his first.


Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
PP5
Always Dreaming J. Velazquez $11.40 $7.20 $5.80
PP1
Lookin At Lee C. Lamerie
  $26.60 $15.20
PP11
Battle of Midway F. Prat     $20.80
PP14
Classic Empire
J. Leparoux     -
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (5-1) $336.20
  $1.00 Trifecta (5-1-11) $8,297.80

$1.00 Superfecta (13-11-5-14) $75,974.50



Our Derby & Full Card Picks Results:

Hence was our highest ranked horse in our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" followed by Lookin At Lee, Practical Joke and Patch ranked within 4 points of each other.

Because Hence did not race in one of the Big 6 Prep races and that his last race was 41 days ago (which are both big negatives in the Winning Profile) we did not recommend using him on top of our selections but instead we made him our best Longshot to use and made him as our (A2) horse that could run in-the-money at big prices.

We felt that Lookin At Lee would fall victim to his draw of the No. 1 Post position and that he would be compromised as was his sire Lookin At Lucky in 2010. However for the first time in 20 years, a Post #1 runner was able to finish in the Trifecta! I think some of his success in the race was due to the No.2 horse Thunder Snow (Ire) not wanting to run as he came out of the gate bucking his rider and was pulled up after only 30-40 yards into the race. Thus Lookin At Lee was not compromised by the No. 2 horse coming over on him and pushing towards the rail!

In our selections we made Classic Empire (7-1) our Top selection to win.

Our B horses were Irap (B1), Always Dreaming (B2) and McCraken (B3) - our top contenders for being in-the-money behind our (A) selections!

Our C horses (those that should make it into the bottom of the Trifecta &  Superfecta were  State of Honor (C1), Irish War Cry (C2), Sonneteer (C3) and Untrapped (C4).

As you can see we had Always Dreaming as a major contender to be in-the-money. We just did not think he would win because he did not have the "X-Chromosome" of War Admiral or Mahmoud.

He became just the second KY Derby winner in the last 20 years, Giacomo (50-1), to win that did not have this pedigree trait!

Our Top selection Classic Empire (7-1) some how got up for 4th after having gotten slammed at the start of the race leaving the gate which took him way out of his usual pace-pressing running style. He may not have beaten Always Dreaming but he never had a chance to show his best.

It appears that he will go to Baltimore and take another shot at Always Dreaming!

Another favorite won, 5th in 5 years, but at least we got longshots in 2nd and 3rd that resulted in big Trifecta and Superfecta payouts. The $1 Superfecta paid $75,974 which was the largest since 2010 when Pletcher also won the KY Derby ($101,285). The $1 Trifecta paid $8,297 which was the largest since 2009 ($20,750).

Heads up for next year, the last and only time the Kentucky Derby has produced 6 consecutive winning favorites was way back in the 1890s.

Our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" again zeroed in on those runners that had the BEST chance of winning and being in-the-money!

For the 14th time in the last 23 years the winner had the Raise A Native sire  pedigree line. Not only did Always Dreaming have this powerful pedigree but so did the 2nd (Lookin At Lee), 3rd (Battle of Midway) and 4th (Classic Empire) place runners!!

There were just (7) of the (20) runners in the KY Derby that had the Raise A Native sire pedigree line and (4) of them finished 1st - 2nd - 3rd and 4th.

Remember this pedigree line is also critical in winning the Belmont Stakes!


In our Full Card Selections:

With the sloppy/muddy track all day we did not have a great day but were able to cash in on a few tickets.

Our Top selection won in (5) races. They were Race 4 ($8.20), 5 ($9.40), 6 ($7.60), 7 ($4.60) and 13 ($8.60).

Had (8 of 14) Exacta winners. Race 2 ($80.00), R4 ($28.20), R6 ($17.60), R7 ($20.80), R8 ($72.20), R9 ($159.20), R11 ($30.60) and R13 ($20.20).

Total - $428.80 for $2 wagers.

Cashed in on  (2) Trifectas - Race 4 ($128.00)  and R6 ($38.60).

Total - $166.60 for $2 wagers.

Also had (1)  Superfecta in R6 ($111.10).

Total - $111.10 in $1 wagers.

Hit (3) Daily Doubles - Race 5 ($16.80), Race 6 ($20.20) and Race 7 ($9.30).

Total - $46.30 in $1 wagers.

Had (2) Pick 3s - Race 6 ($90.60) and Race 7 ($60.00).

Total - $150.60 in $1 Wagers.

Grand Total Won - $903.40

The track was rated SLOPPY/MUDDY ALL Day and changed back and forth throughout the day. There were (3) winning Favorites and (4) Favorites running 2nd in the 14 races on the card. The average Win payoff in the (14) races was a good $13.41 ....


2016 Kentucky Derby
 
Nyquist Scores in the Derby - Remains Undefeated!
 


Nyquist Wins Kentucky Derby

Before a near record crowd of 167,227 racing fans, Nyquist held off the fast closing charge from Exaggerator to win by a 1 1/4 lengths. Gun Runner hangs on for 3rd!

Nyquist becomes just the second Breeders' Cup Juvenile Champion to also win the Kentucky Derby.

Jockey Mario Gutierrez wins a second Kentucky Derby for these same owner and trainer, Paul Reddman and Doug O'Neill. Their other winner was I'll Have Another in 2012.

California based horses have now won 4 of the last 5 Kentucky Derbies! I'll Have Another, California Chrome, American Pharoah and Nyquist ......

The Superfecta was comprised of the 4 Favorites, in order! The Derby Favorites have now won the last 4 races - that is NOT good news for Horseplayers!

This was just the second time in the last 41 years that the Top 3 Favorites hit the board.

Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
PP13
Nyquist M. Gutierrez $6.60 $4.80 $3.60
PP11
Exaggerator K. Desormeaux
  $5.40 $4.20
PP5
Gun Runner F. Geroux     $6.00
PP14
Mohaymen
J. Alvarado     -
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (13-11) $30.60
  $2.00 Trifecta (13-11-5) $173.40

$2.00 Superfecta (13-11-5-14) $1,084.20

  Click here to see the Complete Derby Order of Finish and Payoffs. 



Our Derby & Full Card Picks Results:

Creator was our highest ranked horse in our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" . Exaggerator and Gun Runner ranked 4th and 5th in points.

Because Creator did not carry the "X-Chromosome" of War Admiral or Mahmoud (this pedigree is found in 98% of winners), we did not recommend using him on top of our selections but instead using him as our (A3) horse that could run in-the-money.

We did tell everyone that Nyquist was the horse to beat and that he could be beat. The reason why we did not like his chances to win was because he had a very high Dosage Index (DI) of 7.00.

ONLY 1 Kentucky Derby winner in the last 30+ years had a DI higher than 5.00, Strike the Gold in 1991 (which was later changed to 2.60).

With such a high DI, which means his pedigree favors speed not distance, we felt that the last 1/8th of a mile would be difficult for Nyquist to hang on!

In our selections we made Gun Runner (10-1) our Top selection to win.

Our B horses were were Suddenbreakingnews (B1), Majesto (B2) and Trojan Nation (B3) - our top contenders for being in-the-money behind our (A) selections!

Our C horses (those that should make it into the bottom of the Trifecta &  Superfecta were  Nyquist (C1), Mohaymen (C2) and Exaggerator (C3).

As you can see we had all of the first four horses across the finish line in our selections, just in reverse order!

Our Top selection Gun Runner (10-1) ran a very good race and had the lead at the top of the stretch but could not hang on. He gave us his best effort.

With the first 4 horses across the finish line being the 4 5 Favorites in order, the payouts were very low in Derby standards!

The 15 year average payouts are $1,178 - Exacta, $16,132 Trifecta, $110,378 Superfecta.

This year's Derby payouts were  $30 - Exacta, $173 Trifecta and $542 Superfecta!

The Superfecta payout was the lowest in Kentucky Derby history!

This makes for the fourth consecutive year that the Favorite has won the Kentucky Derby. That has not happened in a long, long time. Could this be a result of the new Derby Points system that has been in place the past 4 years?

Our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" again zeroed in on those runners that had the BEST chance of winning and being in-the-money!

For the 23rd time in the last 31 years, horses with the Buckpasser pedigree have won or come in 2nd. with 14 of those winning. Nyquist had the Buckpasser pedigree as well as Gun Runner!

Again the importance of the Raise A Native sire line prevailed as the runner up winner Exaggerator and third place finisher Gun Runner both have it!

Remember this pedigree line is also critical in winning the Belmont Stakes!

In our Full Card Selections:

We did not have a great day but was able to cash a few tickets.

Our Top selection won in (5) races. They were Race 1, 3, 6, 8 and 14.

Had (5 of 14) Exacta winners in our Top 4 picks. Race 1 ($27.40), R3 ($21.80), R6 ($12.20), R8 ($31.60) and R14 ($92.60).

Total - $185.60 for $2 wagers.

Cashed in on  (5) Trifectas - Race 1 ($66.40), R3 ($21.80), R6 ($80.40), R8 ($212.40) and R14 ($647.20).

Total - $1,112.40 for $2 wagers.

Also had (1)  Superfecta in R8 ($219.10).

Total - $219.10 in $1 wagers.

Grand Total Won - $1,517.10.

The track was rated FAST ALL day and played fair to all running styles as there were Only (4) winning Favorites in the 14 races on the card. The average Win payoff in the (14) races was a very nice $17.96 ....


Kentucky Derby Logo 

Exaggerator Wins Preakness ... Ends Nyquist's Triple Crown Run!

 

On Top of the Pyramid - American Pharoah Wins the Derby!

 
American Pharoah Wins Kentucky Derby

Before a record crowd of 170,513 racing fans, American Pharoah edged past Firing Line to win by a length. Dortmund hangs on for 3rd!

Jockey Victor Espinoza wins for the third time while winning back-to-back Kentucky Derbies.

Trainer Bob Baffert won his 4th Kentucky Derby. He trained both American Pharoah and Dortmund.

The Superfecta was comprised of 4 of the top 5 Favorites resulting in low payouts for Derby standards!

The Trifecta was comprised of all California horses!

Early race fractions were on the slow side as Dortmund fired out of the gate to grab the lead followed by Firing Line and American Pharoah. They raced that way all the way around the track with no-one forcing the pace!

The result of slowing the pace down upfront, was that it made it very difficult for the Closers to make up enough ground to catch them!

Frosted, who was our No.1 rated closer, was able to come from 14th to finish 4th just missing 3rd by a neck!

Jockey Espinoza gave another perfect ride in the Kentucky Derby and showed why an outside post is actually a good thing. He got American Pharoah out of the gate cleanly and was able to position him just behind the 2 front runners all the while keeping him in the clear avoiding any dirt kick back!

Even though American Pharoah run further than the other 2 in front of him, he was in perfect position on the outside to take the lead from Dortmund and then Firing Line. Kudos to Victor Espinoza!

Gary Stevens also gave a great ride on Firing Line as he kept American Pharoah pushed out as much as possible to give his horse every edge possible to win the race! He only lost by a length.

It was a very exciting race to watch but one that disappointed greatly on the payoff side  ...  they were the lowest in 25 years!


Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
18 American Pharoah V. Espinosa $7.80 $5.80 $4.20
10 Firing Line G. Stevens
  $8.40 $5.40
8 Dortmund M. Garcia     $4.20
15 Frosted
J. Rosario     -
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (18-10) $72.60
  $2.00 Trifecta (18-10-8) $202.00

$2.00 Superfecta (18-10-8-15) $1,282.20


Our Derby & Full Card Picks Results:

International Star (SCRATCHED) was our highest ranked horse in our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" followed by Frosted, Danzig Moon, Upstart, Materiality and Mubtaahij.

Because International Star did not earn a 100+ Beyer speed number yet, we did not recommend using him on top of our selections but instead using him as our (B1) horse (top in-the-money runner that would not win)  to be used in the Trifecta & Superfecta wagers. However he was Scratched from the race on the day before!

We did tell everyone that Dortmund was the horse to beat and that he had every right to win over American Pharoah. The main reason why we did not like Ameriacn Pharoah to win the race was because he had a high Dosage Index (DI) of 4.33.

ONLY 2 Kentucky Derby winners in the last 15 years have had a DI higher than 4.00 and they were BOTH (50-1) longshots, Mine That Bird and Giacomo!

In our selections we made Dortmund our A1 horse with Frosted (A2) and Mubtaahij (IRE) (A3). ie. main Contenders for the Win

Our B horses were were (after the Scratch of International Star) Danzig Moon (B1), Carpe Diem (B2) and American Pharoah (B3) - our top contenders for being in-the-money!

Our C horses (those that should make it into the bottom of the Trifecta & Superfecta were  Keen Ice (C1), Far Right (C2) and War Story (C3).

One of our suggested Trifecta wagers was to Key both American Pharoah and Dortmund on the Top and Bottom with ALL in the middle in hopes that we could get a longshot to split them. No longshot and the Trifecta paid $202

With the first 4 horses across the finish line being 4 of the Top 5 Favorites, the payouts were very low in Derby standards!

The 10 year average payouts are $1,483 - Exacta, $20,965 Trifecta, $145,611 Superfecta.

This year's Derby payouts were  $72 - Exacta, $202 Trifecta and $630 Superfecta!

The top 3 finishers all ran on the front end the entire race. The only runner that was able to close any ground on them was Frosted who just missed 3rd by a neck!

This makes for the third consecutive year that the Favorite has won the Kentucky Derby. That has not happened in a long, long time. Could this be a result of the new Derby Points system that has been in place the past 3 years?

Our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" again zeroed in on those runners that had the BEST chance of winning and being in-the-money!

For the 22nd time in the last 30 years, horses with the Buckpasser pedigree have won or come in 2nd. with 13 of those winning. American Pharoah had the Buckpasser pedigree as well as Frosted!

Again the importance of the Raise A Native sire line prevailed as the winner American Pharoah has it! That makes for 13 winners in the last 19 years!

In our Full Card Selections:

We had (5 of 13) Exacta winners in our Top 4 picks. Race 3 ($36), R4 ($151), R7 ($16), R8 ($88), R10 ($39).

Total - $330 for $2 wagers.

Cashed in on  (3) Trifectas - Race 3 ($460), R7 ($185), R10 ($128).

Total - $773 for $2 wagers.

We also cashed in on (5) $2 Daily Doubles, Race 6 ($54), Race 7 ($78), R10 ($48), R13 ($46) and the OAKS/DERBY Double of $54!

Total - $280 for $2 wager.

Hit (2)  $1 Pick 3 in R11 ($105) and R13 ($88).

Total - $193 in $1 wagers.

Also had (1)  Pick 4 in R13 ($395).

Total - $395 in $1 wagers.

Grand Total Won - $1,971.

We had 7 of 13 winners in our Top 4 selections.

The track was rated FAST ALL day as there were (4) Favorites (3) second Favorites Winning in the 13 races on the card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was a solid $15.54 ....

Next up is the Preakness Stakes - Leg 2 of the Triple Crown......


2014 Kentucky Derby

California Chrome Shines Brightly in Kentucky Derby!

 

Orb Wins Kentucky Derby

Congratulations to Art Sherman on his First Kentucky Derby Winner.....

California Chrome easily wins Derby 140 as the 5/2 post time favorite. He got a great break from the gate and was able to join the leaders before Espinoza got him to rate behind them. Espinoza moved him outside in the three path where he had clear running. Espinoza bided his time until the final turn where he began his move on the leaders and taking the over the lead coming out of the turn and increasing his margin in the stretch to win by a easy 1 3/4 lengths.

California Chrome Wins Kentucky Derby California Chrome gave trainer (ex-jock) Art Sherman his first Kentucky Derby winner making the 77-year old trainer the oldest to have won. Chrome gave California their first state-bred Derby winner 52 years. Decidedly was the last in 1962.

This was jockey Victor Espinoza's 2nd Kentucky Derby victory. His 1st being in 2002 on War Emblem who went wire-to-wire for the win.

Espinoza gave California Chrome a PERFECT ride keeping out traffic, up close to the pace and in a path were he had no one in front of him kicking dirt in his face. Well done Victor!

Longshot Commanding Curve closed well in the stretch from the back of the pack to get 2nd followed by third favorite Danza and then second favorite Wicked Strong

Most handicappers (including myself) felt that there were so many early speed horses in here that they would burn each other up and fade in the stretch. However, the speed duel never developed as reasonable fractions were set! It appears the jockeys were also afraid the speed dual would occur and they all rationed their early speed! Final winning time was 2:03.60.

It was the slowest Kentucky Derby time since 1974 when Cannonade won in 2:04.

 

Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
5 California Chrome V. Espinosa $7.00 $5.60 $4.20
17 Commanding Curve S. Bridgemohan   $31.80 $15.40
4 Danza J. Bravo     $6.00
20 Wicked Strong
R. Maragh     -
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (5-17) $340.00
  $2.00 Trifecta (5-17-4) $3,424.60

$2.00 Superfecta (5-17-4-20) $15,383.80


Our Derby & Full Card Picks Results:

Wicked Strong was our highest ranked horse in our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" followed by Danza, Dance With Fate, Commanding Curve, Hopportunity (SCRATCHED).

Because of Wicked Strong drawing the far outside Post #20, we did not recommend using him on top of our selections but instead using him on the bottom of our Trifecta / Superfecta tickets and we were correct in that recommendation!

We did tell everyone that California Chrome was THE horse to beat and that he had every right to win it and if he did would have a very good shot at winning the Triple Crown!

In our selections we made Danza our A1 horse with California Chrome (A2) and Dance With Fate (A3). ie. main Contenders for the Win

We included Commanding Curve as one of our top contenders for being in-the-money!

Our Derby selections included ALL 4 of the runners across the finish line first!

We recommended Exacta of using #4-5-12 on Top of #19-20-15-18-17-8 which paid a nice $340 for a $2 wager!

Depending on how you structured your Trifecta ($1,712) and Superfecta ($7,691) with our other recommended runners (#17-20-19-15-18-8) determined if you cashed in!

Our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" again zeroed in on those runners that had the BEST chance of winning and being in-the-money!

For the 21st year of the last 29 years, horses with the Buckpasser pedigree have won or come in 2nd. with 12 of those winning. Both California Chrome and Commanding Curve had the Buckpasser pedigree as well as Wicked Strong!

The importance of the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud played again as the streak of 35 of the last 54 first and second place runners in the KY Derby had this pedigree trait. As we explained in our picks, California Chrome has (5) lines of this pedigree, Commanding Curve and Wicked Strong also has this pedigree trait!

Also the importance of the Raise A Native sire line prevailed as 2nd and 3rd place finishers, Commanding Curve and Danza have it!

The "Proven Winning Derby Profile" once again identified ALL of the first (4) horses finishing the Kentucky Derby!

In our Full Card Selections:

We had (6 of 13) Exacta winners in our Top 4 picks. Race 1 ($24.00), R8 ($63.60), R9 ($124.60), R11 ($340.00), R12 ($15.40), R13 ($88.00).

Total - $655.60 for $2 wagers.

We also cashed in on (6) $2 Daily Doubles, Race 7 ($41.40), Race 8 ($31.80), R9 ($37.80), R11 ($9.00), R12 ($33.80) and R13 ($53.00) and the OAKS/DERBY Double of $11.40!

Total - $218.20 for $2 wager.

Hit (4)  $1 Pick 3 in R8 ($140), R11 ($90), R12 ($41) and R13 ($258).

Total - $1,402 in $1 wagers.

Grand Total Won - $3,833.70.

We had 10 of 13 winners in our Top 4 selections.

The track was rated FAST ALL day as there were (4) Favorites (3) second Favorites Winning in the 13 races on the card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was a O.K. $10.98 (nothing to right home about)!

Next up is the Preakness Stakes - Leg 2 of the Triple Crown......

It is looking like there will ONLY be (2) Kentucky Derby runners to take another shot at California Chrome!

It will be Ride On Curlin (7th) and he will be getting a BIG jockey change to Joel Rosario and General a Rod (11th) who is also getting a jock change to Castellano.

Why are there ONLY (2) KY Derby horses showing up to take on California Chrome?

You guessed it. They do not feel they have any shot at beating him!.

New and rested faces looking to join in are Bayern, Dynamic Impact, Social Inclusion, Pablo Del Monte, Ring Weekens and the filly Ria Antonia.


2013 Kentucky Derby

The Road to the 2013 Kentucky Derby is Complete!

ORB Gives McGaughey 1st Kentucky Derby Win!


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Orb Splashes Home to Win the Kentucky Derby !


Orb Wins Kentucky Derby

Congratualtions to Shug McGaughey, Joel Rosario, Stuart Janney & Dinny Phipps on their First Kentucky Derby Winner.....

Orb came from far back in the pack as he was running in 17th after 3/4 of a Mile on a sloppy track. But then Orb seemed to kick it into gear at the Mile pole as he moved up to 5th and from there the race was over!

Even his jockey said that he thought maybe he was too far back but then he he made his move everything just happened easily!

Even the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th place runners were near the back of the pack!

Longshot Golden Soul came in 2nd followed by Revolutionary, Normandy Invasion and Mylute as they were racing in 15th, 18th, 6th and 16th after a 1/2 Mile.

Most experts were concerned that there would not be enough early speed in the race to allow the closers to get up for the score. Well I guess the experts were mistaken!

 

Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
16 Orb J. Rosario $12.80 $7.40 $5.40
4 Golden Soul R. Albarado   $38.60 $19.40
3 Revolutionary C. Borel     $5.40
5 Normandy Invasion
J. Castellano     -
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (16-4) $981.60
  $2.00 Trifecta (16-4-3) $6,925.60

$2.00 Superfecta (16-4-3-5) $57,084.00

Our Derby & Full Card Picks Results:

Revolutionary was our highest ranked horse in our Proven Winning Derby Profile followed by Goldencents and ORB.

We made Revolutionary our A1 horse with Goldencents (A2) and ORB (A3). ie. main Contenders for the Win

We made Mylute our TOP Longshot to win at 15-1. He ran a very solid race and will be a major contender in the Preakness if he runs!

We did make a BIG score in the Oaks / Derby Double and used #6 Princess of Sylmar (38-1) with our A1-A2-A3 selections (ORB) as it paid a nice $621.40 for a $2 wager!

In our Full Card Selections:

We had (8 of 13) Exacta in our Top 4 picks. Race 1 ($14.60), R2 ($142.60), R5 ($54.80), R7 ($95.60), R8 ($28.00), R9 ($50.20), R10 ($12.80), R13 ($83.00).

Total - $481.60 for $2 wagers.

Hit (3) $1 Trifectas in R2 ($339), R5 ($158), R8 ($38).

Total - $535 for $1 wagers.

Had (3) $1 Superfectas in R2 ($660), R5 ($519) and R8 ($162)!

Total - $1,341 for $1 wagers.

We also cashed (7) $1 Daily Doubles, Race 2 ($55.90), Race 8 ($25.70), R9 ($20.80), R10 ($4.90), R11 ($9.90), R12 ($22.00) and R13 ($30.20) and the OAKS/DERBY Double of $310.70for $1 wager!

Total - $480.10 for $1 wager.

Hit (5)  $1 Pick 3 in R9 ($73), R10 ($35), R11 ($37), R12 ($53) and R13 ($188).

Total - $386 in $1 wagers.

Also cashed-in on (2) $1 Pick4 wagers in R11 ($179) and R13 ($431).

Total - $610 for $1 wagers.

Grand Total Won - $3,833.70.

We had 10 of 13 winners in our Top 4 selections with (2) of our Best Longshots winning in R2 ($29.60) and R5 ($25.20).

The track was rated sloppy ALL day and there were (5) Favorites that won in the 13 races on the card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was a solid $16.38


2012 Kentucky Derby

I'll Have Another Takes Down Bodemeister!


Congratulations to I'll Have Another

and Mario Gutierrez and Doug O'Neill

(the Apollo Curse Does in Bodemeister!)

I'll Have Another Derby Win

I'll Have Another becomes the first Kentucky Derby winner coming from Post 19 since 1900 .... and the 130 year curse of Apollo remains in tack as front running Bodemeister could not last to the wire!

I'll Have Another also gave trainer Doug O'Neill his first Kentucky Derby win and jockey Mario Gutierrez a Kentucky Derby win in his very 1st attempt in the first leg of the Triple Crown series!  A job well done by all.

It looked like Bodemeister was going to go wire-to-wire as he flew out of the gate and never looked back!

The expected pace duel by Trinniberg never really happened as Bodemeister lead all the way till the last 50 yards. It looked as though Bodemeister was running easily on the front end and that he would hang on for the win, but that last 50 yards was just too much to overcome as I'll Have Another kept coming after him to win by 1 1/2 lengths.

Bodemeister's 6F time of 1:09 4/5 tied for the 4th fastest in Derby history! Despite the brutal pace he set, he still finished well as he finished the final 1/4 mile in :27.4 as he held on for 2nd by a nose over Dullahan.

Ill Have Another Wins 2012 Derby

I'll Have Another got as close to a perfect trip as you can get from post #19. Gutierrez got him to break well and guided him over to be placed behind the 5 top runners. From there he continued to race in the clear where upon nearing the final turn he guided him up between runners. He had to go a little wide rounding the turn and then just kept coming after Bodemeister in the center of the lane.

Dullahn who closed well in the stretch to just miss 2nd by a nose to Bodemeister had to go wide in the far turn. His jockey Kent Desormeaux said he had to go wide because of 2 other runners that came out in front of him. He did make up a lot of ground coming down the lane.

Went The Day Well finished 4t at 30-1 which made for a very nice Superfecta payoff of $96,092. He also closed well from the back of the pack as he was racing in 17th for the first 1/2 mile and was still in 14th position after a mile but made up a ton of ground down the lane.

The Oaks/Derby double paid $731.20 and the Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick3 paid $3,492.45 for a 50 CENT wager!

New records set in attendance and wager handle at the 138th Kentucky Derby!

A new attendance record of 165,307 broke the previous record set last year.

Total wagering handle on the day's full card of 13 races was $187 Million up from $165.2 Million of last year. (maybe the economy is getting better?)

Total amount wagered on the Derby race itself was $133.1 Million.

Race payoffs:

 

Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
14 I'll Have Another M. Gutierrez $32.60 $13.80 $9.00
6 Bodemeister M. Smith   $6.20 $5.60
5 Dullahan K. Desormeaux     $7.20
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (14-6) $306.60
  $2.00 Trifecta (14-6-5) $3,065.60

$2.00 Superfecta (14-6-5-13) $96,092.80

Next up is the Preakness Stakes in 2 weeks and I'll Have Another makes his bid for the Triple Crown!

Our Derby Picks

Bodemeister was our highest ranked horse in our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" however we did NOT make him our top pick because of his NOT having raced at 2 and being a dead on front running style of horse.

We did keep him in our mix as we felt he had a good shot at hanging on for a piece. We made the undefeated Gemologist our top pick as he scored the 2nd highest points on our Profile!

We found out after the race that he did suffer a foot injury. We made Gemologist our A1 horse with Creative Cause (A2) and Dullahan (A3). We had Bodemeister in our C1 contender. We did make Creative Cause as our TOP Longshot to win at 12-1. He ran a very solid race and will be a major contender in the Preakness if he runs!

We liked I'll Have Another all year long and had him in his 2 previous races, but I did not like the #19 post with his usual running style of needing to be pressing the front runners. I felt he would use up too much energy getting over from the outside to get within a couple of lengths of Bodemeister, Trinniberg and Hansen and that would result in him vacking up quickly after 1 mile or so!

Trainer O'Neill did a great job in his training leading up to the race and having his unknown jockey Gutierrez get him out of the gate quickly and move over to join the 2nd level of runners about 7 - 8 lengths behind the front runners.

Hopefully you did take our advise in Bottom-Wheeling the Favorite (Bodemeister) to the Field (I'll Have Another) in the Exacta. It paid $306.

  Our Full Card Selections .......

We had (10 of 13) Exacta in our Top 4 picks. Race 1 ($11.60), R2 ($26.40, R5 ($72.20), R6 ($32.00), R7 ($16.20), R8 ($91.80), R9 ($41.60), R11 ($306.60), R12 ($25.00).

Hit (5) $1 Trifectas in R1 ($56.10), R5 ($100.80), R7 ($87.20), R9 ($176.00) and R12 ($40.30).

Had (3) $1 Superfectas in R1 ($126.20), R5 ($1,133.90) and R12 ($142.20)!

We also hit (5) Daily Doubles, Race 2 ($25.40), Race 6 ($101.80), R7 ($35.00), R8 ($66.80) and R9 ($81.40). As well as the 50 Cent Pick 3 in R9 ($71.95).

One of the big pedigree lines in our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" is the Raise A Native sire line. There were (6) horses in the Derby field that had this pedigree line. (4) of them were I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Dullahan and Went the Day Well! That is the Superfecta that paid $48,046.40!

That is a most powerful stat.

The Preakness Stakes is up next and I'll Have Another will be attempting to win the Triple Crown. Can he do it?


2011 Kentucky Derby Logo

Holy  Animal Kingdom!

Animal Kingdom Becomes a Beast in the Derby!


Animal Kingdom Wins

Congratulations to Animal Kingdom in his UPSET Win in the 137th Kentucky Derby!

His trainer Graham Motion has been red HOT this year with his runners. He also trains Toby's Corner winner of the Wood Memorial who would have been one of the favorites in the Derby if he had not been withdrawn from the field with an injury. His so called BEST Derby horse can not make it to the race and he wins with his Turf/Synthetic runner who had NEVER raced on a dirt track prior. Unbelievable! That is one lucky guy (or very good trainer).

 Talk about luck! What about jockey John Velazquez who would have ridden Uncle Mo trained by Todd Pletcher, Johnny V's main trainer, until he was scratched on Thursday and looked to be without a mount in the big race that he has NEVER won. But then gets a call from the owners of Animal Kingdom to see if he would like to ride him because their named jockey Robby Albarado got injured earlier in the week and they were not sure he would be able to ride on Derby day.

So Johnny V. gets the mount on Animal Kingdom and wins his 1st ever Kentucky Derby and it was not a Todd Pletcher trained horse and he gets a 10% share of the $1,411,800 winners prize!

Now that is racing luck!

Nehro held on for 2nd after gaining the lead for a moment at the top of the stretch from the front running Shackleford. Nehro was able to hold off the charging Mucho Macho Man by a neck to earn his 3rd straight 2nd place finish!

It was the first time 4 years that the Kentucky Derby was run on a fast track. The rain that was forecasted held off for BOTH the Oaks Day as well as Derby Day.

Animal Kingdom wins the Derby

Even though this was a less than stellar field of runners with sub par speed ratings it was still an exciting horse race with several runners having a shot at winning the race deep into the stretch! They were certainly a very competitive field of 3-year olds.

Animal Kingdom became the 1st Kentucky Derby winner to have ONLY 4 career races! In those 4 races he either ran 1st or 2nd, no worst than 2nd! And his story continues in Baltimore in 2 weeks.

Churchill Downs set an all-time record in attendance with 164,858. The previous record of 163,628 was set for the 100thrunning of the Kentucky Derby in 1974.

Even though it looked like there was a lot of early speed hoprses in the race, the race was actually run in somewhat slow fractions which made it difficult for the deep closers like Dialed In to make their one big run from the back of the pack.

Nehro did not race any further back than in 6th place.

Our Derby Picks ...

As far as how our Kentucky Derby Picks did, we had made Animal Kingdom as our LONGSHOT play in the race and rated him as 1 of our 3 A class horses. Our Top picks (A1) was Midnight Interlude and Nehro was our A2 runner. If you played an Exacta Box with our (3) A horses you cashed in on the $329.80 Exacta for every $2 wager you played. A $20 Exacta Box of the 3 A horses paid you $3,298!

With Animal Kingdom winning as our best Longshot play you cashed in across the board for $43.80, $19.60 and $13.00!

The ONLY horse we did not have in our A, B and C ratings that finished in the Top 5 was Mucho Macho Man as we did have Shackleford and Master of Hounds in our C group. We were close in hitting the Trifecta and Superfecta.

We also had a very good day with our Full Card picks as well. Of the (13) races on the card we hit (7) Exactas using our Top 4 selections! As well as (5) Trifectas and (2) Superfectas.

(2) of our BEST Longshots won paying $22.60 in Race 5 and $43.80 in Race 11.

We also cashed in on (3) Pick 3s and (1) Pick 4 along with (4) Daily Doubles!


 

Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
16 Animal Kingdom J. Velazquez $43.80 $19.60 $13.00
19 Nehro C. Nakantani   $8.80 $6.40
13 Mucho Macho Man R. Maragh     $7.00
14 Shackleford J. Castanon      
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (16-19) $329.80
  $2.00 Trifecta (16-19-13) $3,952.40

$2.00 Superfecta (16-19-13-14) $48,126.00

Next up is the Preakness Stakes in 2 weeks and Animal Kingdom's attempt to go for the Triple Crown!


2010 Kentucky Derby Logo

Congratualtions To Super Saver Kentucky Derby Winner!

Calvin Was Super with a Saver for Pletcher!

Super Saver wins

Jockey Calvin Borel won his 3rd Kentucky Derby in the past four years .. unheard of in the sport of horse racing!

Super Saver also gave trainer Todd Pletcher his first Kentucky Derby in 24 tries! He will no longer be known as the 0 for 25 guy.

 After a lot of rain and racing over a sloppy, sealed track at Churchill Downs, Super Saver raced in the first tier of runners and took over the lead from Nobel's Promise and was never really challenged through the stretch to win at 8-1 odds.

Ice Box made his one run closing through the stretch to get up for second at 11-1 odds. He was followed by Paddy O'Prado at 12-1 and then Make Music for Me at 30-1 odds.

Super Saver wins

Super Saver was the 2nd favorite at post time. #1 Lookin at Lucky was the post time favorite at 6-1 but being stuck in the #1 hole, he never really had a chance and finished 6th.

The winner paid $18.00 - $8.80 - $6.00; the Exacta paid $152.40 , Trifecta $2,337.40 and the Superfecta Came back a nice $202,569.20.

The Oaks/Derby double paid $56.60 and the Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick3 paid $755.80.

Jockey Calvin Borel became the first ever to win 3 Kentucky Dery(s) in 4 years! That is just an ubelievable feat!

Trainer Todd Pletcher has to be one lucky guy. After having to scratch his Derby favorite Eskendereya, who eveyone thought was a LOCK to win the race, and give him his first Kentucky Derby winner to entery a Filly to take his place and end up with Super Saver winning to give him his first victory!

I guess he truly was a Super Saver!

Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
8 Super Saver C. Borel $18.00 $8.80 $6.00
2 Ice Box J. Lezcano   $11.20 $8.00
10 Paddy O'Prado E. Coa     $7.40
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (4-2) $152.40
  $2.00 Trifecta (4-2-10) $2,337.40

$2.00 Superfecta (4-2-10-9) $202,569.20

Click Here To See Video Replay of the 2010 Kentucky Derby

Watch Video Race Replay Kentcuky Derby - Super Saver & Calvin Borel!

 


2009 Kentucky Derby Logo

Kentucky Derby 135 Surprises!

  The Bird has Landed .....

 

Congratualtions to Mine That Bird

 
mine that bird wins Can you say shocker?
 
50-1 Mine That Bird wins the Kentucky Derby easily with a Calvin "B0-Rail" Borel ground saving, rail skimming ride from the back of the pack.
 
Mine That Bird was the 2nd highest paying winner in Derby history. The highest being Donerail in 1913 who paid $184.90
 
There was NO way to have picked this horse to win the race!

He did not race in any of the Big 6 Derby prep races. The competition he was racing against was not of Kentucky Derby caliper and his highest Byer speed rating was 81 ....   nowhere close to breaking 100 barrier!
 
Even his connections did not expect him to win. They just wanted a good showing so they could then consider him for the Belmont Stakes. Well they did get a good showing!!
 
The only thing I saw that could indicate that he would run better in the Derby was that he was foaled in May. Meaning he has just become a true 3-year old which means he still has a lot more maturing and growing going on and could jump up and run his career best Byer speed rating.

    But not that much of a jump up!

Older horses, those foaled in Jan., Feb., Mar. and Apr. have been growing and maturing much more than those in May so they do not have as much room for more growth. The other runners in the Derby who also were foaled in May are Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man, Atomic Rain, and Regal Ransom!

This was also a rare Derby race where the leaders backed up so quickly in the stretch. Just as Pioneerof the Nile took the lead it looked like he began to backup. I think this had a lot to do with the track condition at the end of the day. Early on in the day, Early speed was holding and with no sunshine or wind, the track was remaining Sloppy/Fast but by the end of the day reports were coming in saying that surface was getting Heavy and not really Sloppy/Fast.

Also all day long in the winning jockey's post race interviews, they all were saying that the rail seamed to be the place to be in the stretch run. So why did Gomez, Coa and Bejarano stay away from it???

Don't get me wrong, I give Mine That Bird all the credit for winning, but I do think that the race was compromised by the track conditions as well as by the defections of horses do to injuries. Those that dropped out were I Want Revenge, Quality Road, Old Fashioned, Square Eddie, Win Willy, The Pamplemousse, Beethoven and Midshipman.

 
Calvin Borel did a marvelous job with the horse as he has never shown that he could race from well off the pace but "Bo-rail" was able to take him up and race on the rail saving much need ground and then uncorked maddening move along the rail as he squeezed one tight spot along the rail and passed the leaders in midstretch while pulling away the the largest winning margin in the Derby since 1946 when Triple Crown winner Assault won by 8 lengths.

  Our Derby Picks

As far as our Derby picks go, we were right there with Papa Clem and Musket Man as our Top picks to win and had Pioneerof the Nile as a KEY Exacta horse to use!  We just did not have Mine That Bird as a Contender. (I do not know any handicapper that did!)

We came within a Nose of hitting a Super Big Exacta with our ALL with Papa Clem and Musket Man.


The Mine That Bird / Pioneerof the Nile Exacta paid $2,074. Musket Man missed 2nd by a Nose at 19-1. That Exacta would have paid over $6,000 .....
 
But that's horse racing, a nose here or there can make a big difference in cashin a ticket vs. trashin it!
 
I hope a lot of you did a Bottom Wheel ALL Exacta with Pioneerof the Nile as he was a major Contender in the race and was working well in the mornings over the Churchill track.

Our Full Card selections performed well as we had 7 Exacta winners in our Top 4 horses, our Top Longshot in race 5 won and paid $35.20, we had 5 Trifecta winners in our top 4 selections, one Daily Double for $258 and in Race 12 we had the Exacta ($19), Trifecta ($281) and the Superfecta ($1,450) straight.

 

Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
8 Mine That Bird C. Borel $103.20 $54.00 $25.80
16 Pioneerof the Nile G. Gomez   $8.40 $6.40
2 Musket Man E. Coa     $12.00
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (8-16) $2074.80
  $2.00 Trifecta (8-16-2) $41,500.60

$2.00 Superfecta (8-16-2-7) $557,006.40

Watch Video Race Replay Kentcuky Derby - Mine That Bird UPsets!

Mine That Bird will be running in the Preakness and it looks like  Pioneerof the Nile, Musket Man and Papa Clem will be joing him along with Flying Private and General Quarters.


New shooters possible are Big Drama, Conservative, Hull, Sky Gate, Take the Points, Terrain, and Tone It Down.


Will we finally have a Triple Crown Winner?

An over achieving, under rated horse just might be what will finally give us one!  


 Congratulations to Super Horse - BIG BROWN!

 

2008 Kentucky Derby LogoBig Brown became the first Kentucky Derby winner in 93 years to have won with ONLY 3 career races and the 1st to win from post 20 since Clyde Van Dusen in 1921!

He got a perfect trip from the outside racing in 6th just a couple of lengths behind the pace setters and then moved past them all in the final turn and pulling off to win by an easy 4 3/4 lengths.

Big Brown Jockey Kent Desormeaux gave Big Brown a perfect ride ... or was it the other way around! It was Desormeaux's 3rd Derby winner. His others were Real Quiet (1998) and Fusaichi Pegasus (2000).

Finishing behind Big Brown was the Filly Eight Belles, Denis of Cork and Tale of Ekati.

    Horse Jockey Win Place Show
20   Big Brown K. Desormeaux $6.80 $5.00 $4.80
5   Eight Belles G. Saez   $10.60 $6.40
16   Denis of Cork C. Borel     $11.60
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (20-5) $141.60
  $2.00 Trifecta (20-5-16) $3,445.60
  $2.00 Superfecta (20-5-16-2) $58,737.80

Big Brown showed that he was far a better horse than the rest of the Derby contenders. This year's 3-year old horses are a notch below the typical 3-year olds at this time of the year!

Based on speed numbers there were NO Derby runners that came close to Big Brown's. Because no one was close to his numbers he was able to win the 134th Kentucky Derby easily with having ONLY 3 career races coming into the Derby!

That should never happen because of the racing conditioning needed to win a 1 1/4 Mile race early in your 3-year old career!

I do believe the main reason why the other 3-year olds are not getting to the necassary speed ratings is because trainers today are NOT racing their horses often enough so they are ready to peak when the Derby comes around on the 1st Saturday in May!

 Maybe that will change next year after seeing their horses not being competitive at the highest levels. But then again, trainers are slow learners!!

Keep an eye open as these Derby also rans continue their racing campaigns this year as they should improve each time out.

Kentucky Derby Handicapping What can you say about Eight Belles? The effort she put in was absolutley magnificent! She ran a great race running within a few lengths of the leaders and was still there at the top of the stretch trying to make up ground on Big Brown.

Unfortunately, her breakdown after the race was over was heart breaking and disappointing as she ran the race of her life!

Eight belles I do believe part of the reason for the breakdown of Eight Belles, Barbaro and Charismatic is the FACT that breeders today are breeding  more for speed than stamina.

The reason being they want to win big races early in the horses career so they can be retired and sent to the breeding barn for maximizing their earnings in their new career.

When was the last time we saw Triple Crown race winners or even top 3 finishers racing as a 4 and 5 year old?

The answer is Funny Cide who was gelded and had NO earning potential in the breeding barn!

Where are Smarty Jones, Lion Heart, Giacomo, War Emblem, Hard Spun, Afleet Alex, Empire Maker, Fusaichi Pegasus and Monarchos? 

Horses that are bred for speed have softer bones than those that are bred for stamina.

Well, it is on to the Preakness Stakes and Big Brown's quest to become the first Triple Crown winner in 30 years.

Can he do it?    Sure he can .....

But it will not be easy as we have had 6 unsuccessful attempts in the last 11 years!

Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003),  War Emblem (2002), Charismatic (1999), Real Quiet (1998) and Silver Charm (1997).

If Big Brown is to win the Triple Crown this year he will become ONLY the 2nd  UNDEFEATED Triple Crown winner! Seattle Slew  currently is the ONLY  horse to have accomplished this feat.


Congratulations to Street Sense!

and Jockey Calvin Borel..

2007 Kentucky Derby Image
A near record crowd of 156,635, watched the BC Juvenile winner come from next to last to pass the front running speedster Hard Spun in the stretch to win by 2 1/4 lengths!

It was impressive watching him passing the 17 horses that were in front of him to win the 133rd Kentucky Derby easily.

Hard Spun surprisingly held 2nd place very easily by 5 3/4 back to the 3rd place finisher Curlin.

It was nice to see jockey Calvin "Bo-rail" Borel win his 1st Kentucky Derby. He is truely one of the GOOD guys in horse racing. Calvin has never seen a RAIL that he didn't like!

2007 Kentucky Derby Image 65 year old trainer Carl Nafzger should be credited for laying out Street Senses's course for getting to the Kentucky Derby in peak form to successfuly get the 1 1/4 Mile distance.

Carl is one of the Best at preparing a horse for winning one race. This was Carl's 2nd Derby winner with his first being Unbridled in 1990. Unbridled went on to finish 2nd in the Preakness Stakes!

With 3 out of the 4 favorites coming in 1st, 2nd and 3rd, we got low payouts in Kentucky Derby standards. The prices were: Exacta - $101.80, Trifecta - $440 and with Imawildandcrazyguy getting up for 4th at 29-1 the $2 Superfecta paid a decent $29,046.40.

The total handle for the Derby was over $118 Million ....

Can you believe that super trainer Todd Pletcher did not get even 1 of his 5 horses in the money? That is unbelievable! His horses finished 8th, 9th, 18th and 20th.

Let's Look at how some of our Derby Angles Performed:
  • That 16 of the past 25 Kentucky Derby winners traced their broodmare sire bloodlines back to Princequillo, Nassrullah, Northern Dancer or Turn-To?
Yes, Street Sense had this pedigree trait. So did Curlin!
  • That 26 of the last 40 1st and 2nd place finishers in the Kentucky Derby had the passing of the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmound in the correct position of their bloodline for inheritance?  ...  this is known as the Large-Heart trait which Triple Crown winner Secretariat had and was credited to his 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes ...
Again, Street Sense also had the X-Chromosome and so did Imawildandcrazyguy.

  • that 68% of the past 20 Derby's have been won by a "back-of-the-pack" horse.
Street Sense certainly was that.
  • 75% of the past 20 Derby's have been won by a horse that ran 3-7 races as a 2 year old

Street Sense had 5 races in his 2-year old campaign.

only 1 horse has won in the past 21 years that did not run a race within 28 days unless it was in the Florida Derby.

Street Sense was the ONLY horse in the Top 3 finishers that ran within 28 days. If Hard Spun had NOT skipped the Bluegrass Stakes he might just have had enough stamina to hold off Street Sense!

all but one winner in the past 16 years had a BRIS speed rating
of over 100 as a 3 year old (all but two of those had at least a 105).


Street Sense, Hard Spun and Curlin ALL broke the 100 rating and BOTH Street Sense and Hard Spun were 2 of ONLY 4 horses that reached the 105 level!

24 of the past 34 Derby winners raced in one of the Big-6 Prep-Races and ran the final quarter-mile in 25.2 seconds or less.

Both Street Sense and Curlin accomplihed this .. Hard Spun also got his 1/4 mile in less than 25.2 but it was not in one of the Big-6 prep-races!

As you can see, even though many of the trainers this year were trying to go against the PROVEN winning Derby profiles, most of them were again proven this year!
  •  
Street Sense became the FIRST BC Juvenile winner to win the Kentucky Derby!

In my selections I described how he certainly was the horse to beat but that because he would be the favorite, I would try to beat him with some value. I NEVER (almost) make the Derby Favorite my TOP selection as the favorite wins at a very low percentage.

However, when there is such a closely matched field as this one was, it is COMMON for the favorites to win and make up the Trifecta!

Hard Spun led the race from the gate just as I thought he would. I predicited that at the top of the stretch he would begin to fade and I felt he would finish out of the money based on that super fast workout he had just days before the race.

Well, I was partly correct but he did not fade as much as I thought!

I have always liked Hard Spun thoughout the year up until his trainer skipped the Bluegrass and then followed that up with the workout that was almost 2 seconds faster than anyone else that day!

Hard Spun will run in the Preakness Stakes and he probably will be the favorite! Speed horses do well at Pimlico but will he be able to hold off Street Sense or did his Derby race take too much out of him?



derby2006.gif                                             barbaro6.jpg

Congratulations to Barbaro the

2006 Kentucky Derby Winner!

 

Awesome race as Barbaro won by a demolishing 6 1/2 lengths. The largest margin of victory in the Kentucky Derby since 1946 when Triple Crown winner Assault won by 8 lengths.

Could that mean a Triple Crown for Barbaro?

Barbaro remains undefeated and is the 6th horse to come out of the Derby undefeated in the 132-year history of the race. Smarty Jones did it in 2004.

18 times a horse has been undefeated coming into the Kentucky Derby and Barbaro has become ONLY the 6th to leave unbeaten! He is now on the Triple Crown chase with the Preakness Stakes up next in 2 weeks.

The 2nd largest crowd, 157,536, in Derby history saw  Barbaro easily defeat one of the  toughest fields in many years.  Congratulate trainer Michael Matz for conditioning Barbaro to put forth his BEST effort on Derby day.

Matz did a wonderful job getting this horse ready with only 2 races  in  a 13-week period. That is unheard of in the Triple Crown series.

The past 2 Derbys have shown the racing world that an equestrian trainer knows best how to condition a horse for the big time races without having to race them into shape.

Last year trainer Tim Ritchey used unconventional 2 a day 1 1/2 - 2 mile  gallops to get Afleet Alex into shape and this year Matz. Equestrian trainers should now be in demand by owners with Triple Crown aspirations ....

Barbaro went off as the 2nd favorite just slightly behind the "wise-guy" horse Sweetnorthernsaint.

Barbaro paid a decent $14.20, $8 and $6 for Win, Place and Show.

2nd place horse Bluegrass Cat paid $28.40 and $15.40 for Place and Show and 3rd place finisher Stennenwolfer paid $7.80 to Show.

The Exacta paid $587, the trifecta $11,418.40 and there was 2 superfectas with a dead heat for 4th with Jazil and Brother Derek. The superfectas paid $84,860.40 and $59,839 .....

It should be noted that Brother Derek was reported to have lost a shoe in the post parade. That made it very difficult for him to win the race and did very well dead heating for 4th!

Can you believe that the Philly area is now the epicenter for Triple Crown horses??

That's right, the home of the Cheesesteak is  the center of  Triple Crown  horse racing. The home of Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex and now Barbaro.

They have combined for winning 5 of the last 7 Triple Crown races .......

Let's look at some of the Derby pedigree stats that my system uses that again came true!!

  • That 13 of the past 19 Derby(s) a horse with Buckpasser in their bloodline Won or came in 2nd? (10 of those Won)

Now it is 14 of 20 as  2nd Place finisher Bluegrass Cat had this pedigree and so did 3rd place finisher Steppenwolfer!


  • That 24 of the last 38 1st and 2nd place finishers had the passing of the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmound in the correct position of their bloodline for inheritance?? This is known as the "large-heart" trait which Secretariat had and was credited to his 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes!

Yes, it is now 26 of the last 40 as both Barbaro and Bluegrass Cat had this pedigree trait!

As you can see it is important to have the CORRECT pedigree for winning the Kentucky Derby??

Here are some of the Derby stats that my system uses that again came true!!

  • That ONLY 2 race time favorites have won the Kentucky Derby in the past 26 years?
Again the Derby favorite (Sweetnorthernsaint) did not win or come in-the-money.
  • That the Top 3 favorites ONLY hit the board ONCE the last 30 years?
It is now 31 and counting ....
  • That the Top 2 Favorites have ONLY hit the board 6 times in the last 20 years?
Again, it is now 6 of last 21 years!

  • All but one winner in the past 15 years had a Beyer or BRIS speed rating of over 100 as a 3-year old?
The streak continues at 1 of last 16 winners.

The next challenge for Barbaro is can he win a race coming back in just 2 weeks??

He has NOT been trained to come back that soon!  Stayed tuned ......



Congratulations to Giacome
The 50-1 Derby Winner

The 2nd largest upset in Kentucky Derby history!

Can you believe it?  50-1,  71-1  and 29-1 ....

The 131st Kentucky Derby set all-time records for dollars being wagered, $100 Million+, and for pay offs!

$864,253.50  for a $1 Superfecta! Unbelievable ...

If you purchased my Derby Picks, you knew that I had 3 of the 4 horses. We did not have Closing Argument and we lost the Exacta by  a very close 1/2 length.

Afleet Alex was our A1 selection to win the race but long shot Giacomo was our B1 contender most likely to be in-the-money and Don't Get Mad was one of my C horses for filling out the Trifecta and Superfecta wagers.

If you had purchased my picks this is what I had to say about them;

Giacomo - "is on the improve as he earned his 1st triple digit BRIS speed rating last out in the Santa Anita Derby finishing 4th (I love horses who ran 4th last time out) - his final 1/4 mile run in 25.1 which we like a lot - his trainer excels in 4th race after a layoff - his breeding is excellent for the Derby - has Buckpasser within 1st 5 generations and broodmare sire of Nassrullah, Northern Dancer, Princequillo or Turn-To - his down side is that he has not yet won a Graded race and this is a tuff spot to get your first"

I hope you had something on Giacomo to Place and Show or Across-the-Board!

Don't Get Mad - "just won the Derby Trial 7 days ago - will be difficult to win this race - he can come on for a piece of the super or tri - has the correct runjing style for being there when the speed falls apart - earned his best ever BRIS speed rating last out along with a triple digit "Late-pace" speed of 107 - had 2 wins over the Churchill track last year - has Buckpasser within his first 5 generations and the Nassrullah, Northern Dancer, Princequillo or Turn-To broodmare line"

So, you can see we were right there to cash some nice tickets, Afleet Alex just could not hang on for the Win or Place position.

Let's review our Winning Derby Profile that was proven again this year;

Another favorite goes down - only 2 race time favorites have won in the past 25 years.

The Top 3 favorites have only hit the board once in the past 29 years.

The last 20 winners have all run a sharp last race (ITM or within 4 lengths of the winner) Giacomo was 4th only 2 lengths behind.

All but 1 winner in the past 14 years had a BRIS speed rating of at least 100 as a 3-year old. Giacomo had a 100.

14 of the past 19 Derbys a horse with Buckpasser within their 1st 5 generations won or came in 2nd. Closing Argument had it.

23 of 35 1st or 2nd place finishers had the "Large-heart" or X-chromosome trait - 3 of the 1st 4 finishers had it.

NO Breeders Cup Juvenile winner has ever won the Derby and again this year Wilko had no chance.

My proven system for handicapping the Kentucky Derby proves itself year-in and year-out. It consits of 21 categories that include pedigree and racing campaign as a 2 and 3-year old.
2004 Derby Winner Smarty Jones



What a 2 horse race the Kentucky Derby was!

The sloppy track certainly gave the speed horses the advantage and the fact that the grounds crew sealed the surface, only added to their advantage.

If you purchased my system How To Pick The Derby Winner, you would have been aware that a sloppy track most affects the speed horses in a positive way.

Our Top Pick The Cliff's Edge lost BOTH of his front shoes during the race. That makes it very difficult to run well in the Biggest race of the year .... on an off-track!!

Because we are looking for value in the Kentucky Derby, we do NOT bet the post time favorite to win, thus we did not have Smarty Jones on top of our tickets. But our wagering strategy allowed us to hit the Exacta.

Oh, well that is horse racing.

Make no doubt about it, Smarty Jones is a very good horse, he has always shown a lot of heart when being challenged and he can continue to get better.

With the $5 Million bonus that he won along with the Derby purse, Smarty Jones is now No. 6 on the All-Time earnings list with $6,733,155.
 
It was a great weekend in Philly, our sports teams can't win a Championship, but we have the Kentucky Derby Winner!!!

Even though Smarty Jones and Lion Heart had the race to themselves .... it was one of the slowest Kentucky Derbys in many years having been run in 2:04 flat.....

The last time it was run that slow was 15 years ago in 1989 when Sunday Silence won in 2:05 flat on a muddy track!! (muddy tracks are slower than sloppy tracks).

 
What does the slow Derby time of 2:04 tell us?

What will the effect be on the Preakness?

In a recap of our Derby profile let's review;

Only 1 horse has won in the past 18 years that did not run between 3-5 races as a 3 year old ... thus Friends Lake, Birdstone, Read The Footnotes, Castledale and Tapit did NOT have a chance to win....
 
NO horse has won the Derby that did not have a race within the past 28 days... thus Friends Lake, Read The Footnotes and Birdstone had NO chance of winning....
 

Only 1 Derby winner had a BRIS Speed rating of less than 100 in their last race.... thus Birdstone, Friends Lake, Read the Footnotes, St. Averil, Tapit and Wimbledon had NO chance of winning the race....

15 of the last 22 Derby winners had a 1st or 2nd in one of the Derby Big 6 Prep-races... now it is 16 of 23...

22 of the last 38 Winners had the Phalaris sire / Non-Phalaris broodmare" bloodline..... it is Now 23 of the past 39 winners....

The "X-Chromosome" Large-Heart trait in the pedigree comes in 1st and/or 2nd..... well again another Winner had this Pedigree trait.... It is CRITICAL that you know which horses have the "Large-Heart" bloodlines if you want to pick the WINNER!!
 
If you do not know who has the X-Chromosome in the correct position for inheritance of the Larg-Heart trait ..... you will not have the Derby Winner.

2003 Derby Winner Funny Cide



Another Kentucky Derby in the books and ANOTHER favorite goes down!

For those of you that bought my Derby Pedigree handicapping system, you know the importance of having the "Large-heart" trait, the Buckpasser bloodline within their 1st five generations, the Raise A Native in their sire line, and the "Nasrullah, Northern Dancer, Princequillo or Turn-To" broodmare bloodlines!!

Here are some of the continuing statistics that were detailed in my handicapping system;

13 of the past 19 Derbys, a horse with Buckpasser in their bloodlines won or came in second (9 of those won).... that's right, Funny Cide and Empire Maker had this bloodline,

22 of the past 34 1st and 2nd place finishers had the "Large-heart" trait on the dam side... that's right, Funny Cide and Empire Maker had this bloodline...

15 of the past 23 winners trace their Broodmare sire line back to "Princequillo, Nassrullah, Northern dancer or Turn-To"..... that's right, Funny Cide had this trait as well as Empire Maker, Peace Rules and Atswhatimtalknbout... nice Superfecta not to mention the Trifecta and Exacta!!

From my 20 plus years of handicapping the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown series, I have developed a system, which identifies the horses that have the correct pedigree for winning the Derby. My system has picked the Derby winner in 3 out of the last 5 years!!

That includes not only the winner but the Exacta in 4 out of the past 5 years and the Trifecta in 3 of the past 5 years!

I have developed 20 statistics that are indisputable and MUST be used to handicap the Derby.... if you want to win!

After you have my system all you need is the Racing Form or Past Performance from any other source to come up with the Key horses to win and the contenders for the Exoctics. It is very easy to understand and is not time consuming.

For the stats that require you to know the bloodlines, I provide you with the list of horses that have those bloodlines, etc.

Last year the system had all of the first 4 finishers, but not in the correct order. I did not have War Emblem on top of my list of contenders because of his front running, wire-to-wire style. Only 2 horses in the previous 13 years won the Kentucky Derby wire-to-wire....... however there was a indicator that would have moved him to our Top Level contenders that was not a part of my system. I have incorporated that factor into my system this year. It is a factor that has proven itself over the past 5 years!!

Do you remember the winning prices for the 2001 Derby?

They were -

Monarchos paid $23.00 - $11.80 - $8.80 for win-place-show bets. The Exacta paid $1,229.00, the Trifecta paid $12,238.40 and the Superfecta paid $62,986.90........

My system had them all

Did You?

If not, you need my "Winning the Kentucky Derby" system!

I also include with my system a very powerful wagering strategy that maximize your coverage of a large 17 horse betting field without requiring you to invest a fortune!

This powerful stragety includes Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta tickets.

Here is a winning Superfecta ticket from a happy customer that purchased my Derby System & Wagering Strategy.

This ticket paid $2,795.80 ....

03derbytick.jpeg
 
 
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