2017 Belmont Stakes Logo

2017 Belmont Stakes Picks & Results

Tapwrit Wins for Pletcher!




Belmont Stakes Winner 

Congratulations to Tapwrit

Tapwrit wins the 149th Belmont Stakes before a crowd of 57,729 for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Jose Ortiz giving us a different winner in each leg of the Triple Crown series. It also gave Pletcher his second winner of the three races this year as he won the Kentucky Derby with Always Dreaming.

In a race that everyone thought would see Meantime going for the lead from the start and try to wire the field, saw the favorite Irish War Cry take the lead at the start and hold it for the first 11 furlongs before being over taken by Tapwrit for the final furlong as the favorite had nothing left in the tank and lost by 2 lengths!

Pletcher's other horse Patch ridden by Johnny Velazquez was able to get up for third, 5 3/4 lengths behind Irish War Cry and 4 1/2 lengths ahead of Gormley.

Of the (5) Kentucky Derby runners that skipped the Preakness, (4) of them ran 1-2-3-4.

Lookin At Lee the ONLY horse to have raced in all three legs of the Triple Crown could finish no better than 7th as the three race series took it's toll on him!

This was trainer Todd Pletcher's 3rd Belmont Stakes win to go with his (5) second place finishes.

Tapit has now sired 3 of the last 4 Belmont Stakes winners. His fee is currently at $300,000.

It was also the 25th time in the last 32 years that the Favorite got beat in the Belmont Stakes!

Tapwrit Wins Belmont Stakes
  .
 
Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
PP2
Tapwrit J. Ortiz $12.60 $6.50 $5.00
PP7
Irish War Cry R. Maragh
  $4.70 $3.90
PP12
Patch J. Velazquez     $6.50
PP3
Gormley
V. Espinoza     -
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (2-7) $45.20
  $1.00 Trifecta (2-7-12) $312.00

$1.00 Superfecta (2-7-12-3) $2,243.00


Our Belmont Stakes & Full Card Picks Results:

Tapwrit was our TOP pick to win the race with Epicharis (Jpn) being our second choice if Tapwrit could not get it done. When Epicharis was SCRATCHED from the entry box, Irish War Cry, who was our first choice for being in-the-money after our top 2, was moved up into the Epicharis spot on our tickets.

As specified in our wagering strategy, Patch was our first runner to be added to the bottom of our strategy if there were any Scratches.

We felt, of the (5) Kentucky Derby runners that skipped the Preakness to prepare for the Belmont Stakes, Tapwrit had the best shot at winning the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown.

As the 6th place finisher in the KY Derby, who experienced a troubled trip similar to Classic Empire, we felt he would show a similar improved race.  He also had the critical"X-Chromosome" Large-heart pedigree trait found in many Belmont Stakes winners and his trainer Pletcher has experience a great deal  of success in this race (2 wins, 3 2nd).

Add to that Tapwrit's sire had produced 2 of the last 3 Belmont Stakes winners!

It was disappointing to not have the Japanese invader Epicharis in the race as we felt he had the best by far pedigree to get the 1 1/2 Mile distance.

In our wagering strategy we used (2) A runners (most likely to win) along with (3)  B and (3) C runners that would have the best chance to finish in the Trifecta and Superfecta.

After Epicharis was withdrawn from the race Tapwrit was our A1 horse and Irish War Cry became our A2.

Our 3 B horses were Twisted Tom (B1), Gormley (B2) and J Boys Echo (B3) - our top contenders for being in-the-money behind our (A) selections.

Our 3 C horses (those that should make it into the bottom of the Trifecta &  Superfecta) were  Meantime (C1), Senior Investment (C2)  and Patch (C3).

Our wagering strategy allowed us to cash in on the Win/Place of $12.60 and $6.50 as well as the $45 Exacta and the $312 Trifecta ($1 wager) and the $2,243 Superfecta ($1 wager).

Even though this was the 5th time in the past 18 years that the KY Derby and Preakness winners sat out the Belmont Stakes, trainer Todd Pletcher was still able to win 2 of the 3 Triple Crown races!

In our Full Card Selections:

We had a very good day with our Picks. The day was full of sunny skies and the track was rated Fast & Firm all day long!

Our Top selection won in (6) of the (13) races. They were:

Race 2 ($5.70), Race 4 ($6.30), Race 5 ($2.70), Race 6 ($11.60), Race 7 ($5.90) and Race 11 ($12.60).

Had (6 of 13) Exacta winners. Race 2 ($19.20), R4 ($18.00), R5 ($11.46), R6 ($42.00), R10 ($244.00) and R11 ($45.20).

Total - $379.86 for $2 wagers.

Cashed in on  (4) Trifectas - Race 2 ($40.50), Race 4 ($31.00), Race 5 ($23.60)  and R11 ($312.00).

Total - $407.10 for $1 wagers.

Also had (3)  Superfecta in R1 ($484.50), R4 ($83.75) and R11 ($2,243.00).

Total - $2,811.25 in $1 wagers.

Hit (4) Daily Doubles - Race 2 ($15.20), Race 5 ($9.30), Race 6 ($14.40) and Race 7 ($43.60).

Total - $82.50 in $2 wagers.

Had (3) Pick 3s - Race 5 ($33.25), Race 6 ($29.75) and Race 7 ($25.75).

Total - $88.75 in $1 Wagers.

Grand Total Won - $3,769.46

The track was rated FAST throughout the Day and the Turf rated FIRM for the day. There were (6) winning Favorites and (3) Favorites running 2nd in the 13 races on the card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was a decent $15.52 ....

It was a BIG day for jockey "Big Money" Mike Smith as he won (5) races ALL of them being Favorites - (4) for trainer Bob Baffert and (1) for Jerry Hollendorfer 25.75).


2016 Belmont Stakes Logo

2016 Belmont Stakes Picks & Results

Creator Gets Up in Time for the Win!


Creator Wins Belmont Stakes

"Tough beat, he ran a great race" those were the words of Todd Pletcher trainer of Destin who got nosed-out at the wire by Creator for the win in the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown series!

The 1 1/2 Mile distance of the Belmont Stakes was almost too short for Creator as he needed every bit of the marathon distance to get the win by a short nose!

The "Rabbit", Gettysburg, that his owners entered to ensure a quick enough early pace in what appeared to be a race with little pace, proved to be the correct move for Creator! Not so much for Destin who raced in second all the way around until he took the lead from the "Rabbit" at 1/4 pole.

Exaggerator, the Preakness Stakes winner, raced up a little closer than normal 5th place but when they got to the final turn he had nothing left in his tank and faded to finish 11th. His jockey eased off him when it was obvious he was not going to finish in the top 4.

Lani, the only other runner to have competed in all 3 of the Triple Crown races, ran a very good race to close from 12th to finish 3rd only beaten by 1 3/4 lengths.

Governor Malibu finished 4th after racing on the rail until he had to check up, as the "Rabbit" faded back to him, then moved out from but got his lane blocked and had to move back to the inside and still finished in-the-money!

It has been an exciting Triple Crown season as for the 8th time in the last 18 years we got a different winner in each of the 3 Legs.

Once again the Belmont Stakes Favorite gets beat. It has now been 24 times in the last 31 years that the Favorite went down!


Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
PP13
Creator I. Irad $34.80 $14.60 $9.40
PP2
Destin J.J. Castellano
  $9.40 $6.20
PP10
Lani Y. Take     $6.60
PP1
Governor Malibu
J. Rosario     -
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (13-2) $269.00
  $2.00 Trifecta (13-2-10) $2,751.00

$1.00 Superfecta (13-2-10-1) $1,396.50


Our Belmont Stakes & Full Card Picks Results:

The race did unfold as we thought it would with the exception of Destin not being able to hold on for the win!

With the lack of pace in the race, until Gettysburg was a late entry, and the large number of "from the back of the pack" Closers entered, we felt that the Pletcher duo and Exaggerator had the best shot at winning the race!

Even with the late entry of the "Rabbit", we felt that Destin and Exaggerator wouls have the advantage and as such we made Destin our Top pick to win the Belmont Stakes.

As the race unfolded Destin was the main presser to the "Rabbit". We thought it would be the other Pletcher runner Stradivari. Exaggerator was racing up closer to the pace setters just as we expected. He just could not handle the distance after running in all 3 Triple Crown races. That was not a big surprise!

Lani, the only other runner that participated in all 3 races, closed well again to finish a very good 3rd only beaten 2 3/4 lengths. We expected him to have another big showing as his pedigree said distance no problem.

Even the 4th place finisher, "New Shooter" Governor Malibu, ran a very credible race have to pull back and change course because the "Rabbit" faded back into his path. We also felt that Governor Malibu would run a very good race.

What we did not count on was Creator  being able to get up in time to grab the win!  We did feel that he had a very good chance for finishing in the money. A lot of times when a "Rabbit" is entered to help setup the race for his stable mate, it is because his stable mate just is not good enough to get the win.

Well in Creator's case it was just enough help for him to be able to grab victory away from Destin!

We explained in our Picks that our biggest concern with Exaggerator was his pedigree because his Dosage Index was over 3.00 at 3.80 and the average for the 1 1/2 Mile distance is 2.50. He also does not have the "X-Chromosome" Large-Heart" trait!

We did feel that the Belmont Stakes winner would be an upset and we felt that it would be Destin. Destin got beat by the smallest of margins, the hair of Creators nose!

In our selections we made Destin our A1 horse (Top Pick) and Exaggerator A2 horse (the one to beat).

Our B and C horses were Governor Malibu, Brody's Cause, Stradivari, Lani , Creator and Trojan Nation.

We had 6 of the top 6 across the finish line and we did not use the "Wise Guy" horse Suddenbreakingnews that got bet down to 5-1 odds and ran 9th.

In our wager recommendations we Keyed Destin and Exaggerator on top and in the middle of the Trifecta and Superfecta bets..

We also recommend playing a Win / Place wager along with Exacta using Destin on the bottom of the Field. Destin paid $9.40 for the Place and $269 for the Exacta.

It is now 25 of the past 32 years that the Belmont Stakes Favorite has LOST!

In our Full Card Selections:

We had (6) Exacta winners in the 13 races. They were: Race 1 ($102.00), Race 3 ($40.80), Race 4 ($80.00), Race 7 ($421.00), Race 10 ($18.20)  and Race 11 ($269.00).

Total - $931.00 for $2 wagers.

Cashed in on  (3) Trifectas - Race 1 ($103.75), Race 3 ($45.75) and Race 10 ($54.50).

Total - $204.00 for $1 wagers.

We also cashed in on (2) Superfectas in Race 1 ($217.00) and Race 3 ($70.25).

Total - $287.25 in $1 wagers

(7) Daily Doubles, Race 2 ($13.40), Race 3 ($6.80), Race 4 ($16.40), Race 5 ($26.00),  Race 6 ($101.75), Race 9 ($46.75) and Race 10 ($6.90).

Total - $218.00 for $1 wager.

We hit on (4) Pick 3 wagers in Race 3 ($47.50), Race 4 ($43.25), Race 7 ($672.50) and Race 10 ($86.75).

Total - $850.00 in $1 wagers

Grand Total Won - $2,490.25.

We had 9 of 13 winners in our Top 4 selections with (2) as our Top pick.

The track was rated Fast ALL day as there were ONLY (3) Favorites and (1) second Favorites Winning in the 13 races on the card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was a Nice $13.14 ....


2014 Belmont Stakes Logo

Congratulations to Ameican Pharoah - Triple Crown Winner!





American Pharoah Triple Crown Winner

 

American Pharoah Crowned Champion - Triple Crown Champion!
Wins Belmont Stakes Like it was Just Another Race!
 
American Pharoah Wins Belmont Stakes

Before a sold out crowd of 90,000 history seeking horse racing fans, American Pharoah gave them what they came to see! A Triple Crown winner, the first in 37 years!

As the crowd roared, the starting gates opened and American Pharoah took the lead and never looked back!  Materiality came out with him and they ran 1-2 for the first mile when Materiality began to fade. Frosted moved up and took on the challenge of catching him in the final 1/4 Mile but just when it looked like he might pass him, American Pharoah pulled away to win by 5 1/2 lengths!

Keen Ice edged out Mubtaahij (IRE) for 3rd whom had been in contention the entire race.

American Pharoah win the race like a Triple Crown Champion should  ... easily by open lengths!

Trainer Bob Baffert final got the Crown in his 4th try and it was well deserved!

It was jockey Victor Espinoza's third attempt at taking down the crown, 2nd with Baffert, and just as he did in the first two legs, he gave him a perfect ride.

It has been 37 long years waiting on the next Triple Crown champion and just when most of us had given up, American Pharoah proved that it still could done!

He is now in the racing history books as just the 12th Triple Crown Champion.


Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
5 American Pharoah V. Espinosa $3.50 $2.80 $2.50
6 Frosted J. Rosario
  $3.50 $2.90
7 Keen Ice K. Desormeaux     $4.60
1 Mubtaahij (Ire)
I. Ortiz     -
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (5-6) $13.60
  $2.00 Trifecta (5-6-7) $219.00

$1.00 Superfecta (5-6-7-1) $285.00


Our Belmont Stakes & Full Card Picks Results:

American Pharoah was able do what no other horse has been able to do for the past 37 years, win ALL 3 of the Triple Crown races. It truly is one of the most difficult feats in sports to achieve! 3 races at 3 different tracks at 3 different distances over 5 week time period as a 3-year old!

Again the race did not unfold as we thought it would. We felt that Materiality would take it to American Pharoah from the start and see if he could catch him and wear him down.

But jockey Velazquez decided that the best tactic would be follow him and that played into Espinoza's hands as he took the lead from the gate, slowed it down a little and then let him go when they came out of the final turn!

Result American Pharoah was never really pressured and was able to win easily by 5 1/2 lengths.

We did feel that American Pharoah was obviously the horse to beat and that the field was setting up for him with only 7 other runners participating! We felt that Materiality had the best chance of pressuring him as he was a front runner and had the highest Beyer speed rating in the field. But Materiality's connections did not see it that way!

With the last 13 attempts at taking down the Triple Crown ALL failing and American Pharoah being odds-on favorite we felt it was only a 60/40 chance for him to win and so we handicapped the race as though he would not win but finish in-the-money!

We explained how we felt that his Dosage Index was far too high for getting 1 1/2 Mile distance of the Belmont Stakes. His is 4.33 the average for winning at this distance is 2.50. Kudos to him for being able to out run his pedigree weakness. He has proven that he is a Top quality thoroughbred and he earned his wins in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes!

If he was to get beat, we felt that Materiality (speed horse) and Keen Ice (best closer) would have the best shot. However, when Materiality decided to rate instead of lead his race was over. Keen Ice did run well as he got up for 3rd.

In our selections we made Materiality our A1 horse (Top Pick).

Our B and C horses were American Pharoah, Madefromlucky, Keen Ice and Frammento.

Again it was a surprise that the odds on American Pharoah were not lower. I thought he would be much lower than 4-5. He paid $3.50 to the Win as the favorite in a small 8 horse field with a Triple Crown on the line! Just amazing as I was expecting something more like $2.80!

With the 2nd favorite running 2nd, the payouts for the Trifecta and Superfecta were not terrible as you could have Keyed American Pharoah on Top with ALL in the 2nd - 3rd and 4th spots in the Trifecta and Superfecta and you still would have shown a profit!


In our Full Card Selections:

We had (5) Exacta winners in our Top 4 picks. Race 2 ($81.50), Race 4 ($158.50), Race 5 ($13.20), Race 6 ($39.00) and Race 9 ($54.00).

Total - $346.20 for $2 wagers.

Cashed in on  (4) Trifectas - Race 4 ($392.50), Race 5 ($38.00), Race 6 ($81.50) and Race 9 ($145.00).

Total - $657.00 for $1 wagers.

We also cashed in on (3) Superfecta. Race 4 ($1,314.50), Race 5 ($97.50) and Race 9 ($1,016.50).

Total - $2,428.50 in $1 wagers

(5) Daily Doubles, Race 5 ($98.00), Race 6 ($22.00), Race 7 ($71.50), Race 12 ($36.60) and Race 13  ($139.00).

Total - $367.10 for $2 wager.

Hit (2)  Pick 3s in Race 6 ($283.50) and Race 7 ($99.50).

Total - $383.00 in $1 wagers.


Grand Total Won - $4,181.18.

We had 9 of 13 winners in our Top 4 selections.

Our Best Longshot in Race 4 won and paid $23.60 for the Win.

The track was rated FAST & FIRM ALL day as there were only (2) Winning Favorites and (4) second Favorites Winning in the 13 races on the card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was a very nice $15.38 ....

It certainly has been a very exciting year for the Triple Crown Series races and to finally have a Champion for the history books is one we will never forget!


2014 Belmont Stakes Logo

Congratulations to Tonalist in Winning the Belmont Stakes!

.... Down Goes Chrome, Down Goes Chrome!



 

Tonalist Tunes Up California Chrome as He Nips Commissioner at the Wire!


Tonalist Beats California Chrome in Belmont Stakes

To the disappointment of 102,199 racing fans at Belmont Park and their hope for the 1st Triple Crown winner in 36 years, lightly raced and rested Tonalist won the Belmont Stakes and prevented the hopes of the horse racing community of coming true!

California Chrome was only beaten by 2 lengths as he dead-heated for 4th with Wicked Strong.

Second place runner Commissioner almost pulled off a wire-to-wire upset as he lead every step of the way until Tonalist nipped him at the wire! Medal Count was another length behind in 3rd.

California Chrome Stumbles at start of Belmont StakesCalifornia Chrome grabbed a quarter coming out of the gate and maybe got stomped on by Matterhorn. He still put in a very good effort but when turning for home and jockey Espinoza asked him for more, his late kick was not there as it was in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes!

After the race owner Steve Coburn ripped into the owners of Tonalist and Commissioner as being "Cowards" for not having the eligibility to run in the Kentucky Derby but then being well rested jump into the Belmont Stakes to stop a Triple Crown attempt!

He said that if your horse has not earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby, you should not be allowed to jump into any of the next 2 legs of the Triple Crown series - that it is not fair to those that have been competing in those races!

He came off as being a sore looser but the point he was trying make has merit!

The streak continues as California Chrome goes down to defeat and becomes the 13th horse to have failed in the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown series after having won the first 2 legs in the last 36 years!  Maybe Steve Coburn was right when he said we may never see another Triple Crown winner ..............

Thanks to the great race program of (10) Stakes races, Belmont Park had a record day of $150,249,399 of total wagering handle. The racing card was almost as good as Saturday on Breeders' Cup weekend!

 

Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
11 Tonalist J. Rosario $20.40 $9.60 $7.00
8 Commissioner J. Castellano   $23.20 $13.20
1 Medal Count R. Albarado     $13.20
2 DH-California Chrome
V. Espinoza      
9 DH-Wicked Strong
R. Maragh      
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (11-8) $348.00
  $2.00 Trifecta (11-8-1) $6,781.00

$1.00 Superfecta (11-8-1-2) $3,808.80

$1.00 Superfecta (11-8-1-9) $5,733.50
  $2.00 Daily Double (8-11) $116.00
  $1.00 Pick3 (1-8-11) $144.25

$1.00 Pick4 (5-1/6-8-11) $212.65

$2.00 Pick6 (5-1-5-1/6-8-11) $90,671.00


Our Belmont Stakes & Full Card Picks Results:

California Chrome was our top selection to win the Belmont Stakes and become our 12th Triple Crown winner and the first in 36 years. In our analysis we felt that the (5) lines of possible inheritance of the "X-Chromosome" pedigree of War Admiral and/or Mahmoud is what was providing him with the "Natural Speed" he had shown in the Santa Anita Derby, Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes would again carry him to victory in leg 3 of the Triple Crown series!

We did not feel that it would be easy and that fellow KY Derby runner Medal Count had the best shot of upsetting him! Medal Count (25-1) did run a very good race coming in 3rd behind the winner Tonalist (9-1) and 2nd place Commissioner (28-1) with California Chrome and Wicked Strong dead-heating for 4th.

California Chrome did have bad racing luck at the start of the race when the #3 horse Matterhorn stomped on his front foot and Chrome suffered a grabbed-quarter that took off the rear part off his hoof. At some point in the race, you have to feel that it did have some sort of effect on him.

We did not feel that California Chrome would finish any worst that 2nd or 3rd and that the KY Derby runners would have the best shot at upsetting him. We felt that Tonalist just did not have enough racing foundation for him to go 1 1/2 mile distance of the Belmont Stakes! We were wrong on that.

So California Chrome becomes the 13th Triple Crown attempt to go down since the last TC Winner 36 years ago. As we said previously, "Stuff" just happens in the Belmont Stakes!

In our Full Card Selections:

We had (9) of the (13) winners in our Top 4 selections with (3) of them as our Top Pick and hit on 2 of our 4 Best Bets including Bayern ($20.40 in Race 5!

Hit (7) Exacta in our Top 4 picks. Race 2 ($32.20), R3 ($81.00), R4 ($51.50), R7 ($19.40), R9 ($29.60), R12 ($40.80) and R13 ($54.00).

Total - $308.60 for $2 wagers.

Hit (3) $1 Trifectas in R2 ($42), R7 ($86) and R12 ($110).

Total - $238 for $1 wagers.

Had (3) $1 Superfectas in R1 ($430), R2 ($129) and R7 ($125)!

Total - $684 for $1 wagers.

We also cashed (6) $2 Daily Doubles, Race 2 ($43.20), Race 3 ($97.50), Race 4 ($146.00), Race 5 ($122.00), Race 9 ($38.60) and R13 ($28.40).

Total - $475.70 for $2 wager.

Hit (3)  $1 Pick 3 in R3 ($256), R4 ($338) and R5 ($659).

Total - $1,253 in $1 wagers.

Hit (1)  $1 Pick 4 in R5 ($3,509).

Total - $3,509 in $1 wagers.

Grand Total Won - $6,468.30.

 

There were ONLY (3) winning Favorites as well as (2) winning 2nd Favorites in the 13 races on the day's card. The average Win payoff in the (13) races was very good $12.58

 

Next up is the Breeders' Cup Championships - Oct. 31 - Nov. 1 ......


2013 Preakness Stakes Logo

Handicapping the 2013 Belmont Stakes Contenders



the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown Series .....


Palace Malice Prevails Over Oxbow - ORB 3rd!

Congratualations to Mike Smith and Todd Pletcher as they beat the Preakness winner Oxbow and Kentucky Derby winner ORB in an exciting edition of the Belmont Stakes!

Early speed was holding most of the day on the muddy track and that held true in the Belmont Stakes (even though the track was upgraded to fast) as Oxbow ran on the front end with Frac Daddy, Freedom Child and Palace Malice. while ORB was racing in the back of the pack.

Palice Malice wins Belmont Stakes

They were setting fast fractions up front for the first mile and them Frac Daddy and Freedom Child began to fade while Oxbow and Palace Malice continued on. The closers ORB and and the late charging Incognito just could not make up enough ground to catch them in the final 1/4 mile.

The final 1/4 mile times were slow but Oxbow and Palace Malice had enough of a lead over the field that they were really never threatened as Palace Malice was able to pass Oxbow to win at 14-1 odds!

What a change taking the blinkers off of Palace Malice after having tried them in the Kentucky Derby when he set unbelievable fast fractions and then faded to 12th. Jockey Mike Smith said after the Derby that he could not get a hold of him and he took off.

Well jockey Mike Smith was able to control his speed in the Belmont and certainly taking the blinkers off was the right move!

So again we ended up with (3) differnt winners in each leg of the Triple Crown. In fact it was the 6th time in the last 8 years that it has happened!

The NEW faces that joined the Derby runners finished 4th - 6th - 12th - 13th.


Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
12 Palace Malice M. Smith $29.60 $11.20 $6.70
7 Oxbow G. Stevens   $9.90 $6.10
5 ORB J. Rosario     $3.90
6 Incognito
I. Ortiz Jr.     -
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (12-7) $323.50
  $2.00 Trifecta (12-7-5) $931.00

$2.00 Superfecta (12-7-5-6) $20,602.00

 
In our Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy:

We did not feel that Oxbow or ORB would win the race and it would become the 6th time in the last 8 years that there was a different winner in each leg of the Triple Crown series. 

We had Overanalyze as our Top pick for the win and Unlimited Budget (f) as a top challenger that just might be able to beat the colts in the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown.

Overanalyze showed in his  Arkansas Derby win that he did not need to come from far back in the pack to win and that is the prferred running styl for the Belmont Stakes when there is enough early speed entered. Overanalyze also had a win over Big Sandy and that is always helpful in this race. To top off our selection of him was the change in jockey to Johnny V. who owns this track!

However, Overanalyze could finish no better that 7th, 9 lengths behind the winner. Coming from the #3 post, his jock kept him on the inside part of the track for most of the way around. I am not sure that was the place to be as the track had dried out from being rated sloppy-good for the first 8 races on the card and was upgraded to fast in Race 9. The inside part of a drying track can be slower than the middle - outside. Did that hav an effect on his outcome? I don't know!

The filly Unlimited Budget did not fare much better as she finished 6th beaten 8 3/4 lengths. She basically ran an uneventful race running in 8th-7th-6th. We liked her pedigree because of the critical Raise-A-Native sire line. final 1/4 mile of the race!

Kudos to Oxbow as he ran another solid race as one of the front runners and was able to stay on for 2nd. I felt that ORB was a better horse than Oxbow and the better chance of finishing in 2nd. I did not feel that Oxbow would be able to finish in the top three!

We did like Palace Malice to be  a major contender as he was in our top 4 selections.. He was 1 of ONLY 3 runners that had that powerful Raise-A-Native sire line!

He became the 14th winner in the last 20 years of the Belmont Stakes that had this sire pedigree line. That is a whopping 70% winners...........

In our wagering strategy  we did recommend an across the board bet on Palace Malice which paid $29.60 - $11.20 - $6.70 or a $47.50 return on a $6 wager!

Also provided as a backup wager was a 10 Cent Superfecta using ORB and Oxbow in the 2nd and 3rd positions and using ALL on the top and bottom positions. That $24.60 wager returned $1,030.


In our Belmont Stakes Day Full Card Picks we had (8) of (13) winners in our top 4 selections with (2) of them as our Top Pick. 

In addition we hit (5) Exactas in R5 ($149.50), R6 ($48.80), R7 ($23.60), R9 ($97), and R10 ($11).

Total - $329.90 for $2 wagers.

We hit (4) Trifectas in R5 ($353), R6 ($79), R7 ($58) and R10 ($28).

Total - $518 for $1 wagers.

Cashed in on (1) Superfecta in R9 ($1,010).

Total $1,010 for $1 wager.


We also had (5) Daily Doubles in R5 ($415), R6 ($46), R7 ($8), R8 ($12), and R11 ($36).

Total - $517 for $2 wagers.


Hit (3) Pick 3s - R7 ($48), R8 ($15), and R12 ($228).

Total - $291 for $1 wagers.


It has been a strange Triple Crown series this year with the super fast early fractions in the Kentucky Derby (when it looked like there would be none) killing the front runners and allowing the back of the pack closers to run 1st-2nd-3rd-4th.

Then in the Preakness where it looked like there would be lots of early speed, Oxbow wired the field as no one went with him and the Derby winner ORB struggled to finish 4th!

Then in the Belmont Stakes we got a rare full field with (10) Derby runners showing up to take on Oxbow and ORB in the "Test of Champions". Oxbow the Preakness winner was sent off at 10-1 odds and ran well to finish 2nd but could not hold off the Derby 12th place finisher Palace Malice (14-1).

With (3) different winners, there is no clear leader in the 3-year old division which should make for a very exciting summer of racing for this group!


We have all been waiting for the NEXT Triple Crown winner since 1978. It will happen .... just not sure when!

Oh well, there is always next year ...... and the upcoming Breeders' Cup Championship races in November.


Belmont Stakes Logo

Union Rags Finally Gets it Done - Wins Belmont Stakes!

   as he Nips Paynter at the Wire......

 

 


Union Rags wins Belmont Stakes

Union Rags rallied on the rail to get through in time to nip pace setter Paynter at the wire!

It was a big win for Union Rags since his last 2 races were big disappointments. He showed that he may be as good of a horse that he showed last year when winning the Champagne Stakes over this track and running a very good 2nd in last year's Breeders Cup Juvenile!

The big improvement can be attributed to the jockey switch from Leparoux to local top jock John Velazquez. Johnny V. looked like Calvin Borel taking skimming the rail down the lane to win!

After the race Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, rider of Paynter, said he screwed up by letting the rail open for Union Rags to come through.

Trainer Bob Baffert, owner Ahmed Zayat and jockey Mike Smith placed 2nd in ALL 3 legs of the Triple Crown with Bodemeister in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness and now with Paynter in the Belmont Stakes!

Race Replay of the 144th Belmont Stakes:

 

Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
3 Union Rags J. Velazquez $7.50 $4.20 $3.40
9 Paynter M. Smith   $5.10 $3.90
4 Atigun J. Leparoux     $10.60
1 Street Life J. Lezcano      
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (3-9) $31.40
  $2.00 Trifecta (3-9-4) $496.80

$2.00 Superfecta (3-9-4-1) $1,906.00
  $2.00 Brooklyn/Bel (10-3) $29.60
  $2.00 Daily Double (4-3) $48.40

$2.00 Pick 3 (6-4-3) $192.00
  $2.00 Pick 4 (1-6-4-3) $1,283.00
  $2.00 Pick 6 (6-7-1-6-4-3) $15,050.00

 

belmont stakes starting field
 

In our Belmont Stakes Picks & Wagering Strategy:

Before the SCRATCH of I'll Have Another we did not feel that he would win the race and thus the Triple Crown. We made our top selection Atigun for the upset!

After the SCRATCH of I'll Have Another, we felt that it would be either Union Rags, Dullahan or Paynter to win the race. We went with Dullahan (bad choice because he can not win on a dirt surface) on top.

The reason we made the change after the scratch was that we did not expect the same early speed fractions that would be present if I'll Have Another would have been in the race. Usually in the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown series, if a horse won the 2 previous legs he will be a little rank and race faster earlier than usual and thus has nothing left for the final 1/4 mile of the race!

With Atigun being a closer, he would not get the necessary pressure on the front runners for the field to come back to him in the stretch. He did run well enough to place 3rd at 20-1 odds and give us a decent Trifecta payoff of $496

If there was a lock in this race it wast that Paytner would run 2nd just as his stablemate Bodemeister did in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. They are both front runners and have the same trainer and owner, Bob Baffert and Zayat Stables.

On the Preakness Day Under Card there were (5) winning favorites and (3) winning 2nd favorites in the (13) races. The average win payoff was a low $10.53 ......

The average payoff on the Exacta was $148.14, the $1 Trifecta ($476.97), $1 Superfecta ($3,725.82), $1 Daily Double ($41.40), the 50 CENT Pick 3 ($149.80), and the 50 CENT Pick 4 ($1,228.83).

We had a lot of winners in our Belmont Stakes Day Full Card Picks with (10) winners in our top 4 selections with (5) of them as our Top Pick. 

In addition we hit (6) Exactas in R1 ($59.50), R8 ($21.60), R10 ($163.50), R11 ($31.40), R12 ($104.50) and R13 ($39.20). We also had (3) Trifectas and (1) Superfecta.

We also had (6) Daily Doubles in R6 ($34.80), R7 ($32.00), R9 ($59.00), R10 ($48.40), R11 ($19.80), R12 ($24.20).

Our Picks also hit (5) Pick 3s - R7 ($139.00), R8 ($229.50), R9 ($192.00) and R10 ($164.50).

In addition we also cashed in on the Pick 4 in R8 for $641.50.

It has been a great Triple Crown trail this year with I'll Have Another going for the sweep of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. We have all been waiting for the NEXT Triple Crown winner since 1978. I'll Have Another gave us hope that this would be the year, right up to the day before the Belomt Stakes when he was SCRATCHED due to a minor injury!

Oh well, there is always next year ................................................


Belmont Stakes Logo

Congratulations to Ruler On Ice Winner of the Belmont Stakes?

    ... and to Trainer Kelly Breen on getting his 1st Triple Crown race winner!

 

Another Shocker in the Belmont Stakes!

Ruler On Ice raced in 2nd pressing the pacesetter Shackleford over a Sloppy/Sealed track, taking the lead at the top of the stretch.

Second place finisher Stay Thirsty ran in 3rd most of the way around the 1 1/2 mile track and finished ONLY 3/4 of a length behind the winner!

The favorite, Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom finished in 6th place after having a horrific start when he was bumped into by Mucho Macho Man which caused the jockey John Velazquez to loose his left iron and almost fall of the horse. It took him into the 1st turn for him to regain control of the left iron. By this time Animal Kingdom lost all chances of winning the race.

After running in last place for the first half mile, he did put in a strong effort to get up for a 6th place finish behind Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford in 5th!

Ruler On Ice Wins Belmont

The last time the post time favorite won the "Test of Champions" was in 2005 when Afleet Alex won. Since then the winner has paid $14.40 (Jazil), $10.60 (Rags to Riches), $79.00 (Da'Tara), $25.80 (Summer Bird), $28.00 (Drosselmeyer) and Ruler On Ice - $51.50.    

The final time in the 1 1/2 Mile race was a decent 2:30.88. It was run over a Sloppy/Sealed track as were all of the dirt races on the card. 

The sloppy track did have an affect on how the race was run. All day long in the dirt races, early speed was holding. ALL day long.

The jockeys saw this just as we all saw how no one could close and catch the front speed. This resulted in the jocks not wanting to leave Shackleford on the front end by himself. And the didn't!

Ruler On Ice, Stay Thirsty, Santiva and Nehro were ALL pressing Shackleford around the track.

Shackleford led for the first 1 1/4 mile before he gave it up to the 2 runners behind him, Ruler On Ice and Stay Thirsty!

Third place finisher Brilliant Speed was the ONLY runner that was able to make up ground on the leaders as he finished 2 1/4 lengths behind the winner after having raced in 9th and 7th place for the first 1 mile of the race.

It was discovered in the days after the race that Animal Kingdom suffered a leg injury and that it would require surgery thus ending his summer racing campaign. He came out of the surgery in good shape and should be able to make it back to the races in the fall.

 

 
2011 Belmont Stakes Results:
 
     
Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
3 Ruler On Ice J. Valdivia Jr. $51.50 $26.00 $13.60
2 Stay Thirsty J.J. Castellano   $19.40 $10.80
5
Brilliant Speed Joel Rosario     $7.90
6
Nehro C. Nakatani      
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (3-2) $928.00
  $2.00 Trifecta (3-2-5) $8,268.00

$2.00 Superfecta (3-2-5-6) $74,052.00

Watch Video Race Replay Belmont Stakes - Ruler On Ice Upsets!


 


Belmont Stakes Logo

Congratulations to Drosselmeyer Winner of the 2010 Belmont Stakes?

    ... and to Trainer Bill Mott on getting his 1st Triple Crown race winner!

 

Another Upset in the Belmont Stakes!

Drosselmeyer came from off the pace to catch the front running First Dude and Game on Dude inside the sixteenth pole to win by 3/4 of a length while holding off the fast closing Fly Down!

The favorite Ice Box finished a disappointing 9th. Later it was discovered that he displaced his palate during the race.

Drosselmeyer Wins Belmont

Fly Down and First Dude were co-second favorites.

The last time the post time favorite won the "Test of Champions" was in 2005 when Afleet Alex won. Since then the winner has paid $14.40 (Jazil), $10.60 (Rags to Riches), $79.00 (Da'Tara), $25.80 (Summer Bird) and Drosselmeyer - $28.00.    

The final time in the 1 1/2 Mile race was a slow 2:31.57. It was the slowest since 1995 when Thunder Gulich won.

Again, I think this is evident of this years' 3-year old crop of runners being a grade below what we normally see in the Triple Crown series! But it was a very competive group of runners.

Uptowncharleybrown ran a very good 5th but was disqualified to last when it was discover that he lost an 8lb. saddle weight during the race. Derby 4th place finisher Make Music for Me who finished a disappointing 10th had lost a shoe early in the race.

 

Belmont Stakes Finish Drosselmeyer's victory gave trainer Bill Mott his FIRST Triple Crown series race winner. Mott has been a top trainer for many years and is truly one of the good guys in horse racing!

Owners WinStar Farms, who also owns the Derby winner Super Saver, made a BIG jockey change to Hall of Famer Mike Smith dropping Kent Desormeaux who had ridden Drosselmeyer in 6 of his 8 previous races.. It proved to be the CORRECT move!

Trainer Bob Baffert mad a similar move with Lookin at Lucky to win the Preakness Stakes!

Trainer Nick Zito again figured in the outcome of the Belmont Stakes as he trained the 2nd place finisher Fly Down as well as the favorite Ice Box. He always seems to either have the Belmont upset winner or an in-the-money runner. This year he had an in-the-money runner in ALL 3 legs of the Triple Crown series with Ice Box 2nd in the Derby, Jackson Bend 3rd in the Preakness and Fly Down in the Belmont. Not a bad year!!

 
2010 Belmont Stakes Results:
 
     
Post Horse Jockey Win Place Show
7 Drosselmeyer M. Smith $28.00 $11.60 $7.70
5 Fly Down J. Velazquez   $6.80 $5.10
11
First Dude E. Dominguez     $4.90
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (7-5) $144.50
  $2.00 Trifecta (7-5-11) $766.00

$2.00 Superfecta (7-5-11-8) $10,658.00

Watch Video Race Replay Belmont Stakes - Drosselmeyer Upsets!


In our Belmont Stakes selections we felt that there would be an upset winner. However, we felt it would be one of the Kentucky Derby runners and not one of the Dwyer horses so we made Statley Victor our selection.

We did feel that ONLY the Derby and Dwyer runners would make up the Exacta and Trifecta and that the other runners except for First Dude only had a shot at coming in 4th to complete the Superfecta. Therefore there were only 6 runners that could finish 1st, 2nd and 3rd and that is what happened! We just selected the wrong longshot to win!

We did have a good day with our Under Card Selections having (4) Winners on Top and (2) other Top selections coming in 2nd.

The winners were in Race 1 ($11.00), Race 2 ($4.30), Race 6 ($4.40) and Race 7 ($4.20) which was our Best Bet on the card.

Our selections also had (6) Exacta, (2) Trifecta, (1) Pick 3 and (2) Daily Doubles.

The Exacta winners were Race1 ($20.40), Race 4 ($16.40), Race 6 ($15.20), Race 7 ($16.00), Race 9 ($474.00) and Race 10 ($147.00). Total Won in Exactas was $689.00 for $2 wagers.

In 13 races on the Day's Card  there were (5) winning favorites with (4) other finishing second along with (2) second favorites winning!

 


2009 Belmont Stakes

"The Other Bird" - Summer Bird Upsets Mine That Bird!

    It Was a Battle of the Birds

Another Belmont Stakes Favorite goes down to defeat!

Just as quickley as Mine That Bird took the lead in the far trun, Summer Bird came from mid-pack to take the lead at the eight pole to win going away from the tiring Dunkirk and Mine That Bird!

Jockey Calvin Borel showed his inexperience at racing on the Belmont track by making his move on the far turn to take the lead prematurely. 

summer bird The Belmont track is know as "Big Sandy" because of the big wide sweeping turns. It is almost always a kiss-of-death when a horse is asked to go wide in the turn to make his move for the lead because how much more distance he has to cover to get to the lead!

They will usually run out of gas at the eight pole as Mine That Bird did. Calvin also made a BIG mistake by not taking any mounts on the undercard. It would have given him some valuable experience at handling the "Big Sandy" turns.

summer bird Summer Bird finished a respectable 6th in the Kentucky Derby when making a big run on the far turn closing ground on the leaders. However his going 7 wide took too much out of him to finish any better.

To show how much a horse can improve with equipment changes, trainer Tim Ice put blinkers on Summer Bird after the Kentucky Derby to try to get the horse to focus more.

Summer Bird's connections decided to ship him to Belmont Park 3 weeks prior to the race to give him some extra experience working over the "Big Sandy" surface. His first workout over the surface was not a very good one as the horse seemed to be spinning his wheels on the surface. So trainer Ice added toe grabs to his hind shoes.

The result was a big win at 11-1 odds in the 3rd Leg of the Triple Crown series and an upset of the Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird!

Summer Bird became the 1st horse since 1933 to come from 4th or worst at the top of the stretch to win the Belmont Stakes! 

summer bird Summer Bird and Mine That Bird were both first crop colts of the 2004 Belmont Stakes UPSET winner Birdstone at 36-1 odds.

Summer Bird ran the Belmont Stakes in a time of 2:27 2/5. The same exact time that Birdstone beat Smarty Jones in and stopped his Triple Crown attempt!

Birdstone's will become even more popular in the breeding barn after his 2 son's Triple Crown wins!

This year's Triple Crown series was a very exciting one with the 50-1 shot Mine That Bird winning the Belmont Stakes, the 1st Filly, Rachel Alexandra, to win the Preakness Stakes in 85 years and Summer Bird's upset win in the Belmont Stakes.


In our Belmont Stakes Picks we did feel that Mine That Bird would win the race but he would be in-the-money.

We felt that Chocalate Candy would be the UPSET winner because of the amount of training time in had over the Belmont surface and the fact that he was really liking the surface in his morning works.

We stated in our picks that Dunkirk and Mine That Bird were the 2 horses to beat. We just did not select Summer Bird as the likely upset winner!

Because of how strongly we felt that Dunkirk and Mine That Bird were the 2 horses to beat and that we thought there would be a upset in the race, we should have made a Trifecta wager with ALL on Top of those 2 horses. The ticket would have cost us $16 for $1 ticket!

On the entire 13 race Belmont Stakes Day racing card, our selections had 6 Winners as our Top pick with 4 other winners as our 2nd pick. Including 2 Best Bets and 1 Longshot plays.

Win payoffs were $6.80, $4.20(BB), $9.70, $3.80(BB), $9.20, $22.40(BLS) for top selections.

We hit 9 of the 13 Exata(s), 2 Trifectas and 2 Daily Double. 

Exata payoffs were $20.45, $22.80, $108.00, $87.50, $12.40, $46.60, $40.80, $90.50, and $151.00. for a TOTAL of $580.05 for $2 wagers.

The Trifecta payouts were $141.00 and $521.00 and the Daily Doubles paid $121.50 and $238.00 for a TOTAL of $1,021.50

2009 Belmont Stakes Results:.


  Horse Jockey Win Place Show
4   Summer Bird K. Desormeaux $25.80 $9.30 $4.70
2   Dunkirk J. Velazquez   $5.40 $3.60
7   Mine That Bird C. Borel     $2.60
6   Charitable Man A. Garcia      
      EXOTIC PAYOFFS:
  $2.00 Exacta (4-2) $121.00
  $2.00 Trifecta (4-2-7) $295
  $2.00 Superfecta (4-2-7-8) $852

 

2009 Belmont Stakes Video Replay - Summer Bird Upsets!!


2008 Belmont Stakes

Brown Dud!

    Da' Tara UpSets at 38-1

Big Brown threw in a major dud finishing last in the Belmont Stakes as the 1-5 overwhelming favorite! It was obvious that entering the last turn that Big Brown did not have much left in the tank and jockey Kent Desormeaux pulled him up, prematurely I think, and thus finished last.

Da' Tara won in wire-to-wire fashion which is bascially impossible to do in the 1 1/2 Mile Belmont Stakes. No one really pressed Da' Tara on the front end ond as the ONLY Early Speed horse in the race he was able to steal the race winning easily by 5 1/4 lengths over Denis of Cork who wa sthe 2nd betting favorite  in the race.

Trained by the King of Triple Crown spoiler, Nick Zito who also had 3rd place finisher Anak Nakal, Da' Tara became his trainer's 2nd Triple Crown Upsetter in 5 years. In 2004 he stopped Smarty Jones when Birdstone won at big odds.

When Casino Drive scratched out of the race it left Da' Tara as the ONLY Early Speed horse in the field. Da' Tara would not have won the Belmont Stakes if Casino Drive would have raced because he would have pressed Da' Tara which would have forced him to run harder longer. When Big Brown dropped out, Casino Ride would have still been there with Da' Tara!

Big Brown The Triple Crown is one of the most difficult feats to accomplish in ALL of sports!

Big Brown became the 7th, since 1979, Odds-on Favorite to lose the Belmont Stakes! 

For the 7th time in the past 12 years a Triple Crown attempt has failed! Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Charismatic (1999), Real Quiet (1998), Silver Charm (1997) and now Big Brown (2008).

Will we ever see another Triple Crown Winner?

It has now been 31 years since we had one!

Big Brown With the Dead-Heat for 3rd place, we got the 3 Longest odds horses in the Top 4 finishers along with the 2nd post time favorite.

Denis of Cork (7-1) ran well to finish 2nd, 2 1/2 lengths in front of the (2) 3rd place runners Ready's Echo (28-1) and Anak Nakal (34-1). 


In our Belmont Stakes Picks we did feel that Big Brown would win the race. However, we also told our readers that if he were to get beat, it would no doubt be one of Nick Zito's runners. (Da' Tara or Anak Nakal)!

We felt that the edge would go to Anak Nakal because of his running style and that Early Speed does not last in the 1 1/2 Mile distance of the Belmont Stake.

When Casino Drive scratched out of the race, we added Da' Tara to our Trifecta and Superfecta selections.

Anak Nakal was our Longshot Pick to upset Big Brown if he were to lose.

Well he did lose but we had the wrong Zito horse on Top. Anak Nakal did pay $7.60 to Show so we did make a little money on our across-the-board wager.

What we should have done on a Trifecta ticket was to play both of Zito's horses on Top and Bottom and ALL in the Middle. It would have cost us $14 for a $1 ticket. The payoff to us would have been $1,851.50.

We did have ALL 4 of the 1-2-3-4 finishers in our Trifecta and Superfecta tickets. We just did not use the Early Speed horse on Top of them.


Rags to Riches Makes History

In the 2007 Belmont Stakes!

 
2007 Belmont Stakes LogoAnother unbelievable and exciting finish  in the 3rd leg of the Triple Crown series!

It was another hard fought battle down the stretch to the wire with the Filly holding off Curlin at the wire by a head in another photo finish.

It almost looked like an exact repeate of the Street Sense - Curlin battle in the Preakness when Curlin came back at the wire to nose out Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense!

curlin and street sense
After stumbling out of the gate the filly was able to regain her balance and get back into stride without out loosing too much ground to the field. 

Rags to Riches became ONLY the 3rd Filly to win the Belmont Stakes in 139 years! The last time was in 1905 .. 102 years ago!

She was running wide the entire race which made the 1  1/2 Mile race much longer. Curlin saved ground by taking the inside route to the stretch as he was also conceeding a 5 pound weight advantage to Rags to Riches.

The first Mile of the race was run in one of the slowest in Belmont Stakes history.  No one wanted the lead (i guess they read the winning Belmont Profile)  so our longshot special C P West assumed it with Slew's Tizzy in 2nd and Hard Spun in 3rd. They ran very slow getting the first 1/4 in :24.74 and  the 1/2 mile in an unbelievable :50.14. They continued the slow pace getting 6F in 1:15.32.

They completed the first mile in 1;15.32 and then Curlin and Rags to Riches kicked in to gain the lead in the stretch and finished the last 1/2 mile very fast. The final time of 2.28.74 was very respectable.

Rags to Riches ran her final 1/4 mile in a very quick :23 4/5 and got the last 1/2 mile in a fast :47 4/5!

This slowly run race reminded me of this year's Blugrass Stakes where no one wanted the lead and they too ran very slow with everyone steaming home down the lane and there was a 5 horse photo at the wire.

The only difference in the Belmont Stakes was that ONLY 2 horses had anything left for the stretch run. That's the difference in running 1 1/8 mile vs. 1  1/2 mile.

For the 2nd consecutive year we have a different winner in each of the Triple Crown races. But ALL 3 of them were very exciting with Street Sense coming from next to last the pass the field and catch front running Hard Spun to win the Kentucky Derby.

Then in the Preakness we had the battle between Street Sense and Curlin at the wire with Curlin getting the win and end our hope for a Triple Crown this year. Then the tables got reversed on him at the wire with the Filly Rags to Riches winning by a neck!

2007 Belmont Stakes Logo
Not to mention Todd Pletcher finally getting his 1st Triple Crown series winner. He tried 28 times previously with his top Colts with NO victories  ...   then when he had no other runners to enter he went with the filly and she got him to the winners circle!

The down side to this year's Triple Crown races was that the payoff were very low compared to the averages!

Unfortunately the Kentucky Derby 1-2-3 runners were 3 of the 4 post time favorites. In the Preakness the 1-2-3 finishers were the 3 top favorites and then in the Belmont 1-2-3-4 horses were the 4 favorites ...

In our picks we had Curlin as our top selection with Rags to Riches and C P West as our runner up choices. However, our wagering strategy enabled us to cash in on the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta bets.

The $2 payoffs were $25.20, $131.50 and $242.50 respectably.



Congratulations to Jazil

the 2006 Belmont Stakes Winner


Jazil overpowered and prevailed in the "Test of Champions" as he came from dead last to win by 1 1/4 lengths in front of BlueGrass Cat!


The Maiden only winner, proved much the best in the 1 1/2 Mile Belmont Stakes and his jockey Jara did a nice job of riding him and getting through traffic to take on Bluegrass Cat at the top of the stretch.
 
The grounds crew had the track setup for speed all day  and that proved beneficial to Jazil. On paper this race looked like a paceless match with no real speed horses for Jazil to close into. However the speed enhanced track resulted in faster early fractions than it looked like we would get and thus Jazil was able to close on the leaders and still have more than enough ground remaining to be able to take over the lead.

Todd Pletcher's 2 horses finished 2nd and 3rd followed by Steppenwolfer and the European Oh So Awesome.

The $2 Exacta Paid $92, the $1 Trifecta $218, the $1 Superfecta $1,085 and the $1 Million guaranteed Pick4 paid $835 for $1 ticket.

Unfortunately when there is NO big favorite in the race, the wagering dollars gets spread evenly across the field which results in lower exoctic payoffs.


The odds on the 1st 4 finishers were 6.20, 4.90, 6.00 and 4.80.

The favorite was Bob and John at 4.70 -1. So you can see that the odds were very close to the favorite's.

Oh well, it was still a great race to watch and maybe next year we will have the Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner in the race.


We had the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th place finishers but NOT Jazil.

Our top picks were Sunriver and European Oh So Awesome. Sunriver ran a perfect race to be in position to go for the lead heading into the last turn but did not have any closing kick. He got to within 1 3/4 lengths of the leader but could not go on.


Oh So Awesome had a bad start after hesitating at the gate he then lunged in the air. That put him next to last and was last after a mile. He started to close leaving the backstretch and got into contention at the top of the stretch but had used up too much energy trying to make up for the bad start.

Let's see how the Winning Profile held up this year.


Still only 1 wire-to-wire winner in the past 22 years! (so we knew that Bob and John wouldn't be around after going for the lead when the gates opened).

It is now 6 of the last 8 Belmont winners did not race in the Preakness.

It is now 11 of the last 16 Belmont winners raced in the Kentucky Derby.


In the past 21 years only 5 favorites have won.

Over the past 11 years, 11 different trainers have won the race!

Jazil had NOT earned a triple digit Byer speed rating  which is usually a mandate if you want to win the Belmont Stakes.


Again, his trainer knew he had to have Jazil running earlier than usual if he were to have any chance at winning. His jockey had him moving up at the end of the back stretch and in position to take the lead in the final turn!

Congratulations to them!

Jazil will now be preparing for the Travers which is always a very good race with a lot of talented horses!


For the numbers players out there this year for the Triple Crown series, the No. 8 was HOT!

In the Derby, #8 Barbaro won, in the Preakness #8 Bernardini won and in the Belmont, #8 Jazil was the winner. How much easier could get??




Review of My 2005
Belmont Stakes Picks



Well Afleet Alex destroyed the field just like we predicited.

His odds of 6-5 were actually much highier than they should have been. When you can more than double your money on a certain LOCK like Alex, you have got to load up!

The $4.30 that he paid was a big time gift!

I explained in my picks and analysis that Afleet Alex would only pay $3.00 to win and $2.10 to Place and Show. So when he actually paid $4.30, $3.60 and $3.00 across the board, it was easy money!

I explained how Afleet Alex was in a class ALL to himself in this week field. I also explained why we had a weak 3-year old crop this year in the Triple Crown series.

We had the Exacta dead cold with Alex and the ONLY horse that ran in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and now shows up in the Belmont Stakes. Afleet Alex and Andromeda's Hero paid $44 for the Exacta. If you played a $20 Exacta you got back $440 for a profit of $420.

I had also had the Pick 4 in races 8, 9, 10 and 11 which paid $490 and the Pick 3 in races 9, 10 and 11 which paid $314.50.

If you boxed my Pick 4 selections in the 10th race, you would have hit the Exacta for $506, Trifecta for $1,993 and the Superfecta for $41,092 ...

That is correct, if you boxed the 4 horses that I selected to use in the Pick 4 you would have cashed in on either $21,795 for $1 wager or $43,591 for $2 wagers ...

I will be handicapping the Breeders Cup races scheduled for October 29th and they will be held at Belmont Park.

Breeders Cup day is the BEST day in horse racing and there are always big payouts in the exotic wagers.

Please come back for my picks and wagering strategy as I will be cashing in on a lot of wagers!


 
 
 
 
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